000 AXPZ20 KNHC 132151 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SAT JUL 13 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS W FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 08N78W ACROSS PANAMA TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 08N84W CONTINUING NW TO 12N94W...THEN W TO 10.5N112W TO 11N121W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE. THIS ITCZ THEN CONTINUES W TO 11N129W THEN WSW TO BEYOND 00N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05.5N79W TO 08N85W...ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINES FROM 15N93W TO 09N103W AND FROM 11N109W TO 13N123W TO 10N136W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 30 NM OF 18N106W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER CYCLONE IS QUASI-STATIONARY AT 34N138W WITH A NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH EXTENDING SE ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 30N132W TO 24N130W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS AT 18N130W WITH AN TROPICAL UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING ESE TO 12N112W. THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES COMBINE TO DRY OUT THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE N OF 17N W OF 116W. AN UPPER CYCLONE HAS FORMED OVER THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 07N129W WITH A TROUGH SW TO 03N140W. THE UPPER FLOW IS SLIGHTLY DIFFLUENT BETWEEN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROPICAL UPPER RIDGE AND THE UPPER TROUGH...AND IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED TO THE W OF 110W. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE FANS OUT ACROSS THE AREA FROM 08N-14N BETWEEN 110W-137W. AN UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 20N112W WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER ITS E SEMICIRCLE ENHANCING THE DISSIPATING CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED NEAR 18N106W. A SMALL UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS RESULTING IN UPPER NE FLOW ACROSS THE TROPICS E OF 102W WHICH IS ADVECTING THE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED CONVECTION TO THE SW BUT MOSTLY EVAPORATING ALONG 06N AS THE UPPER LEVELS APPEAR VERY DRY S OF 06N TO THE E OF 100W. AT THE LOW LEVELS A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N130W TO 17N106W. NE TRADES AT 15-20 KT ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM 11N-18N W OF 125W WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT IN MIXING NE AND S SWELL. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SERIES OF CYCLONIC SWIRLS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT ACCOMPANIED BY ONLY 5-10 KT WINDS. A STRONGER CIRCULATION IS SUGGESTED TO DEVELOP NEAR 08N90W DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. S SWELLS RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS TO 8 FT WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 115W-130W ON MON NIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL REACH ALONG 06N BETWEEN 100W-120W ON WED THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. $$ NELSON