000 AXPZ20 KNHC 130952 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SAT JUL 13 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS W FROM THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 10N76W TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 10N86W...AND CONTINUES W TO 11N100W TO 11N125W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE. THIS ITCZ THEN CONTINUES SW TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 132W-135W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 105W-109W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN 30 NM OF 13N88W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA N OF 06N. ...DISCUSSION... AN ELONGATED AND WEAKENING UPPER CYCLONE IS N OF THE AREA AT 35N137W WITH A NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH EXTENDING SE THROUGH 32N127W TO 29N122W. TO ITS SE...A SMALL UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 24N122W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM IT TO 21N136W TO 22N140W. THE MID AND UPPER FLOW PATTERN BETWEEN BOTH OF THESE FEATURES IS ZONAL WITH SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING AN ABUNDANCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE LEADING TO A VERY DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE AT ALL LEVELS N OF 15N AND W OF ABOUT 115W. BROKEN STRATOCUMLUS CLOUDS MOVING S TO SW ARE NOTED ACROSS THAT PORTION OF THE AREA. A BROAD INVERTED UPPER TROUGH...ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR ALOFT... DOMINATES THE DEEP TROPICS S OF 08N AND W OF 122W-137W. THE TROUGH IS WEAKENING WITH TIME...HOWEVER...THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN REMAINS SLIGHTLY DIFFLUENT BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND TROUGH. IT CONTINUES TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE REMAINS DENSE AS IT FANS OUT ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM 06N-17N BETWEEN 110W-125W...AND ALSO IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH CONVECTION. AN UPPER CYCLONE IS OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA NEAR 19N109W. IT IS HELPING TO KEEP ACTIVE THE CONVECTION THAT IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 104W-108W. SLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO THE E OF THIS CYCLONE ARE DRAWING DEBRIS UPPER MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS NORTHWARD TOWARDS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. A SMALL UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO 10N83W. CLUSTERS OF ACTIVE SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...GUATEMALA...AND HONDURAS ARE SPREADING DEBRIS UPPER MOISTURE WELL TO THE SW OVER THE DEEP TROPICS TO THE E OF 100W WITH MOISTURE NOW SPREADING ACROSS THE EQUATOR TO THE E OF 96W. AT THE SURFACE TO LOW LEVELS...STRONG HIGH PRES OF 1030 MB ANALYZED WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AT 43W144W EXTENDS A RIDGE THROUGH 32N131W AND TO NEAR 23N122W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N AND W OF 121W. NE TRADES OF MAINLY 15 KT WITH AT TIMES A FEW SPORADIC SPEEDS OF 20 KT ARE PRESENT TO THE SW OF THE RIDGE IN THE TROPICAL AREA DEFINED FROM 11N-18N W OF 130W ...AND WITH SEAS THERE OF 6-7 FT IN MIXING NE AND S SWELL. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO MON AS THE 1030 MB HIGH STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY. THE GLOBAL MODEL RUNS FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING WEAK LOW PRES FORMING ALONG AND NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH SEGMENT OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS WITHIN THE GENERAL AREA FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 92W- 103W. PRESENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ANIMATION REVEAL THAT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED OVER THAT PORTION OF THE AREA. PER WPC/NHC MEDIUM RANGE COORDINATION FROM MON WILL DEPICT A WESTWARD MOVING TROUGH ALONG 95W/96W FROM 10N TO 15N BEGINNING WITH THE 48 HR WINDWAVE AND SURFACE FORECAST GRAPHICS. $$ AGUIRRE