000 AXPZ20 KNHC 130232 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SAT JUL 13 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS W FROM THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 10N76W ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 11N-12N TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 11N86W...CONTINUING W TO 11N125W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE. THIS ITCZ THEN CONTINUES SW TO BEYOND 08N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WELL S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS N OF A LINE FROM THE COLOMBIAN COAST AT 02N78W TO 08N103W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED S OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N105W TO 11N112W TO 09N122W THEN IS OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 115W-138W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ WITHIN 180 NM OF COAST OF MEXICO FROM 102W TO 106W BUT IS DISSIPATING AT THE MOMENT. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER CYCLONE IS AT 35N137W WITH A NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH EXTENDING SE INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 31N130W TO 25N123W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS E INTO THE AREA ALONG 22N140W TO 19N130W TO 14N113W. THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES COMBINE TO DRY OUT THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE N OF 16N W OF 114W. A BROAD INVERTED UPPER TROUGH...ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR ALOFT... DOMINATES THE DEEP TROPICS S OF 07N BETWEEN 122W-137W WITH THE PATTERN SHIFTING W WITH TIME. THE UPPER FLOW IS SLIGHTLY DIFFLUENT S OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE AND TO THE N OF THIS BROAD TROUGH...AND IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED TO THE W OF 110W. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE REMAINS DENSE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND IS FANNING OUT ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM 06N-14N BETWEEN 110W-121W AND FANNING OUT WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED MILES OF THE MATURE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ALONG THE ITCZ TO THE W OF 121W. AN UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 18N108W WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER ITS E SEMICIRCLE ENHANCING THE DISSIPATING CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 18N104W. THE DENSE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS SPREADING NE OVER INLAND MEXICO TO 21N100W. A SMALL UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN HONDURAS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO 10N83W. THE ASSOCIATED WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED TO THE E OF 100W. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED S OVER THE DEEP TROPICS TO THE E OF 100W WITH MOISTURE NOW SPREADING ACROSS THE EQUATOR TO THE E OF 101W. AT THE LOW LEVELS A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 30N140W TO 14N107W. NE TRADES AT 15-20 KT ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM 11N-18N W OF 130W WITH SEAS OF 6-7 FT IN MIXING NE AND S SWELL. MODEL GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO FAVOR A WEAK CYCLONIC TURNING CURRENTLY ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS NEAR 11N94W...AND MAINTAINS A BROAD BUT WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SHIFTING W TO NEAR 12N100W MON NIGHT...AND NEAR 12N105W LATE WED. $$ NELSON