000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121507
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1605 UTC FRI JUL 12 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...   
     
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 11N106W. THE ITCZ 
AXIS LIES ALONG 11N106W TO 09N125W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM S OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 112W AND 125W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 150 NM OF TROUGH BETWEEN 90W AND 95W. 

...DISCUSSION... 

CONDITIONS ARE QUIETER THAN USUAL FOR MID-JULY WITH NO AREAS OF 
25 KT WINDS IN OUR AREA CURRENTLY...NOR ANY EXPLICITLY 
ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  LIKEWISE...ONLY ONE 
SMALL AREA OF 8 FOOT SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS IS CURRENTLY 
OCCURRING...WHICH SHOULD SHORTLY DISSIPATE AND ALL OF THE SEAS 
REMAIN PLACID FOR SOME TIME TO COME.

WHILE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 112W AND 125W IS QUITE 
ACTIVE AS MENTIONED ABOVE...TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS NOT 
ANTICIPATED AS THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE VORTICITY IS LOW AND THE 
SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS MODERATELY HIGH.  THIS 
CONVECTION LIKELY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED.

THE OTHER AREA OF CONVECTION MENTIONED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH 
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOCALIZED AREA OF ROTATION.  CONVECTION... 
THUS FAR...HAS NOT BEEN PERSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE. SOME 
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS HINTED AT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BY 
ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...THOUGH NONE ARE VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH 
THE SPIN UP.  IF THIS SYSTEM DOES DEVELOP...THEN THE WINDS/SEAS 
WILL NEED TO BE BUMPED UP FROM THAT CURRENTLY PROVIDED.

THE ONE SPOT OF 8 FOOT SEAS NOW OCCURRING IS JUST NORTH OF THE 
EQUATOR NEAR 95W AND 115W AS A RESULT OF LONG-PERIOD SW SWELL 
COMING UP FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE.  THESE SHOULD SUBSIDE 
SHORTLY.  THE NEXT LONG-PERIOD SW SWELL EVENT ALONG THE 
SOUTHERN BOUNDARY SHOULD COMMENCE ON TUESDAY.
 
$$ 
LANDSEA