000 AXPZ20 KNHC 110230 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC THU JUL 11 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED TO THE N OF 11N ALONG 97.5W WITH A CLUSTERS OF TSTMS FLARING FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 94W-100W. THE WAVE IS MOVING W UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE WITH CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED CONVECTIVE FLAREUPS UNTIL THE WAVE AXIS REACHES ALONG 103W ON THU...AND WILL THEN LIKELY BE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS W FROM THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 10N85W TO ACROSS NORTHERN COSTA RICA TO 10N85W THEN W TO 10N108W...THEN DIPS SW TO 06N120W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE. THE ITCZ THEN CONTINUES W TO 06N128W...THEN TURNS NW TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FLARING S OF THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05N82W TO 10N86W...ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N88W TO THE BASE OF THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED TROPICAL WAVE AT 12N98W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF 08N102W...ALONG THE W PORTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N111W TO 14N113W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG IS NOTED WELL N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13N120W TO 15N127W TO 13N140W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N128W TO 26N130W. AN INVERTED MID-UPPER TROUGH IS NOTED FROM 19N127W TO 29N122W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE HAS SHIFTED W OF THE AREA NEAR 24N142W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING E TO A SHARP CREST AT 25N125W. THESE THREE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS COMBINE TO DRY OUT THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 18N TO THE W OF 120W. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SW CONUS IS ADVECTING UPPER MOISTURE N ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH THE MOISTURE THEN CONTINUING NE AND LATER E ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND CENTRAL ARIZONA AND RECENTLY FEEDING INTO LARGE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS OVER ARIZONA AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG THE W COAST OF OLD MEXICO FROM 16N-26N LATE WED. AN UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO HAS ITS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ADVECTING THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THIS COASTAL CONVECTION SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 16N-28N BETWEEN 100W-112W. A BROAD INVERTED UPPER TROUGH...ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR ALOFT... DOMINATES THE DEEP TROPICS S OF 09N BETWEEN 108W-124W AND IS SHIFTING W WITH TIME. THE UPPER FLOW IS SLIGHTLY DIFFLUENT S OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE AND TO THE W OF THIS BROAD INVERTED TROUGH...AND IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED BETWEEN 112W-146W. THE RESULTANT THIN DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED W ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 120W-145W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 14N94W WITH ITS ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATING THE TROPICAL PACIFIC N OF 07N TO THE E OF 104W WHICH IS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. MOST OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED W BUT REMAINING TRAPPED UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. AT THE LOW LEVELS A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 30N140W TO 20N113W WITH NE TRADES AT 15-20 KT WITHIN 240 NM NW OF LINE FROM 12N140W TO 15N135W WITH SEAS 6-8 FT IN MIXED NE AND E SWELL. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY LATE THU. SOUTHERLY CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL IS MAINTAINING COMBINED SEAS OF 6-8 FT ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS FROM 05N-07N BETWEEN 82W-111W. THESE SWELLS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE WITH COMBINED SEAS BELOW 8 FT LATE THU. NE TO E WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BRIEFLY TO 15-20 KT TONIGHT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 6 FT. $$ NELSON