000 AXPZ20 KNHC 102147 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC WED JUL 10 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED TO THE N OF 11N ALONG 96.5W WITH A FEW CLUSTERS OF TSTMS FLARING FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 91W-102W. NORTHERLY DRAINAGE WINDS AT 15-20 KT HAVE DIMINISHED BUT AN AREA OF SEAS TO 8 FT...PRIMARILY DUE TO MIXED NE AND S SWELL...WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13N96W TO 15N95W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS W FROM THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 10N85W TO ACROSS CENTRAL COSTA RICA FROM 10N85W TO 10N110W... THEN DIPS SW TO 06N120W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE. THE ITCZ THEN TURNS NW TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FLARING S OF THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 02.5N79W TO 08N85W...ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N87W TO 10N93W THEN TURNING NW TO THE BASE OF THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED TROPICAL WAVE AT 12N97W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IN THE FORM OF A N-S OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS NOTED W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13N98W TO 06N102W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...WITHIN 30 NM OF 14N115W AND WITHIN 15 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13N112W TO 11N119W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG IS NOTED WELL N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15N123W TO 14N137W TO 12N140W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. AN INVERTED MID-UPPER TROUGH IS NOTED FROM 21N125W TO 28N121W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 25N140W WITH ITS ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATING THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 18N W OF 128W. THESE THREE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS COMBINE TO DRY OUT THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 18N TO THE W OF 120W. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SW CONUS IS ADVECTING UPPER MOISTURE NW AND LATER N ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH THE MOISTURE THEN CONTINUING NE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. AN UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO HAS ITS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TAPPING THIS DEBRIS MOISTURE AS WELL AND ADVECTING IT S ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN 360 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17N102W TO 26N112W. A BROAD INVERTED UPPER TROUGH...ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR ALOFT... DOMINATES THE DEEP TROPICS S OF 09N BETWEEN 107W-122W AND IS SHIFTING W WITH TIME. THE UPPER FLOW IS SLIGHTLY DIFFLUENT S OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER RIDGE AND TO THE W OF THIS BROAD INVERTED TROUGH...AND IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED BETWEEN 120W-140W. THE RESULTANT THIN DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED W COVERING THE TROPICS FROM 08N-16N BETWEEN 120W- 145W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 14N94W WITH ITS ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATING THE TROPICAL PACIFIC N OF 07N TO THE E OF 102W WHICH IS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. MOST OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED W BUT REMAINING TRAPPED UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. AT THE LOW LEVELS A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 30N140W TO 20N113W WITH NE TRADES AT 15-20 KT WITHIN 240 NM NW OF LINE FROM 12N140W TO 14N133W WITH SEAS 6-8 FT IN MIXED NE AND E SWELL. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT ON THU. SOUTHERLY CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL IS MAINTAINING COMBINED SEAS OF 6-8 FT ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS FROM 03N-08N BETWEEN 80W-110W. THESE SWELLS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE WITH COMBINED SEAS BELOW 8 FT ON THU. NE TO E WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BRIEFLY TO 15-20 KT TONIGHT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 6 FT. $$ NELSON