000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100233 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC WED JUL 10 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 90W WITH CYCLONIC TURNING CURRENTLY EVIDENT OVER NORTHERN GUATEMALA. AS THE WAVE CONTINUES WESTWARD TONIGHT IT WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH NORTHERLY DRAINAGE WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATE TONIGHT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING ON WED. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD BRIEFLY TO 8 FT IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REACHING ALONG 13N ON WED AFTERNOON AS THE RESULTANT SHORT PERIOD NORTHERLY SEAS ENCOUNTER LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS W FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 08N77W ACROSS PANAMA THEN WIGGLING BETWEEN 07N-09N TO 08N110W THEN NW TO 10N115W WHERE IT BECOMES ILL-DEFINED. THE MONSOON TROUGH RESUMES NEAR 15N117W AND EXTENDS WSW TO 14N128W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE WHICH CONTINUES SW TO BEYOND 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED S OF THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 120 NM OF A LINE FROM 07N78W TO 07N83W...ALONG THE TROUGH WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 08N92W TO 07N98W...FROM 06N-12N BETWEEN 110-118W... AND ALONG THE WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 30 NM OF 14N121W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE ITCZ...ROUGHLY WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14N127W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 45 NM OF THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 86W TO 88W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER CYCLONE AT 35N132W IS LIFTING NE WHILE TRAILING AN UPPER TROUGH SW ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A SECOND MID-UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 23N120W IS DRIFTING W AND FILLING RAPIDLY AND WILL LIKELY WEAKEN TO AN OPEN TROUGH IN THE NEXT HOURS. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 25N131W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO BEYOND 21N140W. A BROAD INVERTED UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE DEEP TROPICS S OF 09N BETWEEN 95W- 115W. THE UPPER FLOW IS SLIGHTLY DIFFLUENT S OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND W OF THIS BROAD TROUGH...BASICALLY OVER THE LOWER LEVEL MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AND LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THE CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED SW AND COVERS THE TROPICS FROM 04N-14N BETWEEN 110W-137W WITH SOME OF THE MOISTURE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 125W- 135W ON WED. THE UPPER LEVELS APPEAR VERY DRY N OF 18N W OF 122W AND S OF 06N BETWEEN 85W-116W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OBSERVED OVER BELIZE WITH ITS ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDING MOSTLY S AND DOMINATING THE TROPICAL PACIFIC N OF 05N BETWEEN 81-98W...WITH 98W BEING THE WESTERN EXTENT OF CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. MOST OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED SW-W BUT EVAPORATES WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED MILES OF THE CLUSTERS. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IS ADVECTED E ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE REMNANT LOW OF FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ERICK IS NEAR 26N114W AND ANALYZED AT 1013 MB. A VERY SMALL AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT ARE EXPECTED WITHIN ABOUT 30 NM OF THE LOW CENTER. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO AN OPEN TROUGH EARLY WED. SOUTHERLY CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL IS MAINTAINING COMBINED SEAS OF 6-9 FT ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS TO THE S OF 07N BETWEEN 80W-87W AND ALSO S OF 13N BETWEEN 92W-111W. THE AFFECTED AREA IS FORECAST TO SHRINK TO ONLY THE WATERS FROM 08N-11N BETWEEN 80W-110W LATE WED WITH SEAS BELOW 8 FT EARLY THU. $$ NELSON