000 AXPZ20 KNHC 092148 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC TUE JUL 09 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 89W WITH CYCLONIC TURNING CURRENTLY EVIDENT OVER BELIZE AND EASTERN GUATEMALA. AS THE WAVE CONTINUES WESTWARD IT WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BRIEFLY TO 15-20 KT LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING ON WED. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD BRIEFLY TO 8 FT IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REACHING ALONG 13N ON WED AS THE RESULTANT SHORT PERIOD NORTHERLY SEAS ENCOUNTER LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS W FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 07N77W WIGGLING BETWEEN 07N-09N TO 09N113W WHERE IT BECOMES ILL- DEFINED. THE MONSOON TROUGH RESUMES NEAR 15N120W AND EXTENDS SW TO AN EMBEDDED 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE AT 14N127W. SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATES A TRANSITION TO AN INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE SW OF THIS EMBEDDED LOW WITH THE ITCZ THEN IN TURN CONTINUING SW TO BEYOND 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED S OF THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 150 NM OF 05.5N81W...AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 08N113W TO 14N109W. ISOLATED MODERATE AND STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 08N83W TO 06N93W TO 13N92W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ACCOMPANIES THE LOW PRES AND ITCZ...ROUGHLY WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13N126W TO 08N140W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER CYCLONE AT 34N133W IS LIFTING NE WHILE TRAILING AN UPPER TROUGH SW ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A SECOND MID-UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 22N119W IS DRIFTING W AND FILLING. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 25N127W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO BEYOND 20N140W. THE UPPER FLOW IS SLIGHTLY DIFFLUENT S OF THIS RIDGE OVER THE LOWER LEVEL MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AND LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THE CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED SW AND COVERS THE TROPICS FROM 04N-16N BETWEEN 110W-137W. THE UPPER LEVELS APPEAR VERY DRY N OF 18N W OF 122W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OBSERVED OVER BELIZE WITH ITS ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDING MOSTLY S AND DOMINATING THE TROPICAL PACIFIC TO THE E OF 98W...WHICH IS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. MOST OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED SW-W BUT EVAPORATES WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED MILES OF THE CLUSTERS. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM LAND CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IS ADVECTED E ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE REMNANT LOW OF FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ERICK IS NEAR 25N114W AND ANALYZED AT 1012 MB. WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20-25 KT...SEAS TO 9 FT... WITHIN ABOUT 60 NM OF THE LOW CENTER. EXPECT THE LOW TO WEAKEN TO AN TROUGH ON WED. SOUTHERLY CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL IS MAINTAINING COMBINED SEAS OF 6-9 FT ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS TO THE S OF 06N BETWEEN 81W-88W AND ALSO S OF 10N BETWEEN 92W-113W. THE AFFECTED AREA IS FORECAST TO SHRINK TO ONLY THE WATERS FROM 03N-06N BETWEEN 80W-109W ON WED WITH SEAS BELOW 8 FT ON WED NIGHT. $$ NELSON