000
AXPZ20 KNHC 091535
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1605 UTC TUE JUL 09 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...   
     
MONSOON TROUGH 10N86W TO 08N93W. ITCZ FROM 08N93W TO 08N114W. 
SECOND MONSOON TROUGH AXIS RESUMES FROM 16N116W TO LOW PRES NEAR 
14N120W 1011 MB TO 15N124W...THEN ITCZ TO 09N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 200 NM S OF AXIS FROM
101W-105W AND FROM 07N-114W BETWEEN 107W-112W.

...DISCUSSION... 

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 24N 
128W WITH NE TO SW RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 29N121W THROUGH THE 
ANTICYCLONE TO 20N140W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS 
NW OF THE RIDGE. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND 
STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 15N W OF 120W. 
AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 23N117W N TO 28N119W. ANOTHER 
ANTICYCLONE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT 
FLOW ENHANCING CONVECTION A IN THAT AREA.

ERICK HAS WEAKENED TO A POST-TROPICAL STORM NEAR 24.4N1113.2 W 
AT 09/1500. ERICK IS MOVING NW AT 9 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 
25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35. ERICK IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE DURING 
THE NEXT 48 HRS AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
AND INTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. NO CONVECTION IS 
NOTED WITH ERICK. SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT ARE LIKELY IN THE AREA OF 
25 TO 30 KT WINDS...GENERALLY WITHIN 60 NM NW SEMICIRCLE AND 45 
NM SE SEMICIRCLE OF THE CENTER. THE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT 
ENTIRELY BY TONIGHT.

SW CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL 8-10 FT IS S OF 07N E OF 115W WILL 
SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT LATE WED. SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF 20N W 
OF 120W. NE TRADES TO 20 KT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT ARE ALONG THE 
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FROM 10N-15N W OF 125W.

$$
DGS