000 AXPZ20 KNHC 090926 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC TUE JUL 09 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERICK AT 09/0900 UTC IS NEAR 23.9N 112.4W. ERICK IS MOVING NW AT 9 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. ERICK IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TO A POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW TODAY AND DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTNT25 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NO CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH ERICK AT THIS TIME. SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT ARE LIKELY IN THE AREA OF 25 TO 30 KT WINDS...GENERALLY WITHIN 60 NM NW SEMICIRCLE AND 45 NM SE SEMICIRCLE OF THE CENTER. THE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT ENTIRELY BY TONIGHT. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 08N92W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N92W TO 08N113W. A SECOND MONSOON TROUGH AXIS RESUMES FROM LOW PRES NEAR 14N119W 1012 MB TO 12N128W...THEN ITCZ TO W OF 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF MONSOON TROUGH AXIS E OF 85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 98W AND 101W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 135W. ...DISCUSSION... CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ARE PULSING E OF 90W WHERE SW FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS IS CONVERGING INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH...AS A TROPICAL WAVE MIGRATES N OF THE AREA THROUGH THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE CONVECTION IS ALSO AIDED BY DIVERGENT SE FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG 95W AND AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE INSTABILITY ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS INITIATED AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT AREA THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...THE APPROACH OF THE TROPICAL WAVE OR ITS REMNANTS THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA IS INITIATING AN AREA OF FRESH GAP FLOW THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC...ALLOWING SEAS TO BUILD TO 8 FT BY WED. SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED SE WINDS TO 20 KT OVER MUCH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERICK PASSAGE NW ALONG THE PACIFIC SIDE OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS ERICK WEAKENS. A SURGE IN CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY FLOW W OF 120W S OF 10N IS CONVERGING INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ IN THAT AREA. LIGHT TO MODERATE NE FLOW N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ IS INTERACTING WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO FORM WEAK CYCLONIC CENTERS ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ W OF 120W. CONVECTION REMAINS WEAK IN THIS AREA HOWEVER DUE TO UNFAVORABLE NE FLOW ALOFT...AND NO SIGNIFICANT CYCLONIC DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SE SWELL ACCOMPANIED THE SURGE OF WINDS...AND SEAS AT OR NEAR 8 FT WERE NOTED BY A PAIR OF CRYOSAT PASSES EARLIER FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN 125W AND 132W. SCATTEROMETER DATA ALSO INDICATED MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADES MAINLY FROM 13N TO 20N W OF 135W. THE SE SWELL WILL PROPAGATE INTO THIS AREA OF TRADES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS RESULTING IN AN AREA OF MIXED NE AND SE SWELL WITH HEIGHTS TO 9 FT IN THE AREA 09N TO 15N W OF 130W. A SURGE OF SOUTHERLY SWELL WITH SEAS TO 10 FT IS CROSSING THE EQUATOR THIS EVENING EAST OF 120W. THIS SW WELL IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTLINE OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA BY LATE TODAY...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS. THE SW SWELL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY WEDNESDAY. NO ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT LONG PERIOD SWELL ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AFTER THIS EPISODE FADES. $$ CHRISTENSEN