000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090319
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
0405 UTC TUE JUL 09 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERICK AT 09/0300 UTC IS NEAR 
23.2N 111.6W. ERICK IS MOVING NW AT 9 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 
SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. ERICK IS FORECAST TO 
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS AS IT MOVES OVER 
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE 
ENVIRONMENT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTNT25 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY 
UNDER MIATCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE 
WITHIN 90 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM S SEMICIRCLE.  THE HAZARDS 
AFFECTING LAND ARE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT 
CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...   
     
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 08N115W. THE ITCZ 
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 13N120W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 125W AND 
130W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM 
OF TROUGH AXIS E OF 90W. 

...DISCUSSION... 

MARINE WEATHER IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE...THOUGH TYPICAL... 
SUBTROPICAL HIGH LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN ALASKA AND HAWAII. 
DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED WITHIN OUR REGION AND IS RESTRICTED 
TO ONLY A COUPLE SMALL REGIONS ALONG THE ITCZ...MONSOON 
TROUGH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERICK...AND THE REMNANTS OF DALILA. 
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR 20N130W IS CONTRIBUTING 
TOWARD THESE TYPICAL SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS.

THE REMNANTS OF DALILA...A WEAK 1010 MB LOW...CONTINUE NEAR 
18N111W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 180 NM OF 
THE LOW.  THIS SWIRL SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER ON TUESDAY.

THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FAIRLY WEAK...LEADING TOWARD NO 
WINDS OF 25 KT OR HIGHER IN THE TRADEWIND REGIME.  THERE 
IS...HOWEVER...A SMALL AREA OF 8 FOOT SEAS NEAR 10N130W WHICH 
PRIMARILY IS DUE TO SE SWELL.  THIS AREA WILL SHIFT 
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS MAINTAINING 8 TO 9 
FOOT SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS DUE TO COMBINED SE AND NE SWELL.  
THE GFS-BASED WAVEWATCH APPARENTLY SOMEWHAT OVERDID THIS FEATURE 
DUE TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...SO THE FORECAST WAVE HEIGHTS ARE 
LOWERED FROM THE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE.

A SURGE OF SOUTHERLY SWELL WITH SEAS TO 10 FT IS CROSSING THE 
EQUATOR THIS EVENING EAST OF 120W.  THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY 
DIMINISH BY WEDNESDAY. NO ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT LONG-PERIOD 
SWELL ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AFTER THIS 
EPISODE FADES.

ONCE ERICK FADES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT DAY OR 
SO...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE 
TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

$$ 
LANDSEA