000
AXPZ20 KNHC 081606
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1605 UTC MON JUL 08 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK AT 08/1500 UTC IS NEAR 21.3N 
109.5W. ERICK IS MOVING NW AT 8 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 
40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. ERICK IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO 
WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INTO A DRER AND MORE STABLE 
ENVIRONMENT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTNT25 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY 
UNDER MIATCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL STORM 
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE TIME WHILE THE CENTER OF 
ERICK MAKES IT CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH TO CABO SAN LUCAS THIS 
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION  IS 
OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE N QUADRANT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM IN THE QUADRANT. 
THE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ARE... LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP 
CURRENT CONDITIONS...HIGH-ENOUGH AMOUNTS OF RAIN THAT MAY CAUSE 
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...AND THE TROPICAL 
STORM FORCE WINDS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...   
     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 9N85W TO 09N91W TO 09N103W 
...THEN RESUMES FROM REMNANT LOW PRES NEAR 17N112W 1008 MB TO 
10N131W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ AXIS TO 08N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S 
OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 102W-106W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS SEEN WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 127W-130W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG IS OVER THE FAR EASTER N PART OF THE 
AREA S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 03N TO 08N E OF 87W. 

...DISCUSSION... 

THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA REMAINS UNDER RATHER DRY AND STABLE 
CONDITIONS ALOFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LIFTING NWD NEAR 
18.5N132W....AND ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE NEAR 23N119W EXTEND BROAD 
RIDGING OVER THE PORTION OF THE AREA W OF ABOUT 120W. BROAD 
UPPER TROUGHING IS PRESENT ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA 
ASSOCIATED WITH A CYCLONIC VORTEX MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD NW OF 
THE AREA AT 34N137.5W.

E OF 120W...SUBSIDENT NE SHEAR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 24N102W IS INHIBITING 
ORGANIZED CONVECTION BETWEEN 90W AND 98W. THE EXCEPTION IS ALONG 
THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 100W AND 110W WHERE SW FLOW INTO THE 
TROUGH IS ENCOUNTERING MODERATE NE FLOW. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM THE SE YUCATAN PENINSULA SW TO 10N97W ALLOWING FOR 
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FARTHER E ALONG 
WITH THE A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN IS 
STARTING TO INTERACT WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH COSTA RICA 
AND PANAMA. THIS ALONG WITH THE SUPPORT ALOFT ON THE E SIDE OF 
THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO THE E OF 90W 
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...ASCAT DATE FROM OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT SHOWED 
S WINDS TO 20 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN ENTRANCES TO THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA. MODERATE TO FRESH SE FLOW IS EXPECTED ALONG THE GULF 
OF CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS ERICK MOVES NW 
PAST CABO SAN LUCAS TOWARD THE OPEN WATER ON THE WEST SIDE OF 
THE BAJA PENINSULA.

SCATTEROMETER DATA AND TOGA TAO BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATED A 
BROAD AREA OF 15 TO 20 KT S TO SW FLOW INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH W 
OF 115W. THIS HAS BEEN AIDING DEVELOPMENT OF PULSES OF 
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH...BUT THESE HAVE BEEN 
RELATIVE SHORT LIVED AS SUBSIDENT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE NEAR 18.5N132W HAS BEEN 
INHIBITING CONVECTIVE GROWTH. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A SERIES OF 
WEAK LOW PRES AREAS FORMING ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH MID 
WEEK...PRIMARILY BETWEEN 110W AND 130W.

A SURGE OF SOUTHERLY SWELL WITH SEAS TO 9 FT WILL CROSS THE 
EQUATOR TODAY BETWEEN 92W AND 125W...AND EVENTUALLY ENCOMPASS 
THE AREA S OF 03N BETWEEN 110W-132W BY WED WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. 

$$ 
AGUIRRE