000 AXPZ20 KNHC 080312 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC MON JUL 08 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK AT 08/0300 UTC IS NEAR 20.8N 108.7W. ERICK IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 8 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 50 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. ERICK IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS AS IT MOVES OVER WATERS WITH COMPARATIVELY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND VERTICAL SHEAR. PLEASE READ THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTNT25 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE TIME WHILE THE CENTER OF ERICK IS PASSING NEAR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA EARLY MONDAY. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 45 NM OF CENTER IN N SEMICIRCLE. THE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ARE... LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS...HIGH-ENOUGH AMOUNTS OF RAIN THAT MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...AND THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 08N78W AT THE COAST OF COLOMBIA... ALONG 08N TO 85W...TO A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 07N93W...TO 08N98W AND 10N101W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS DISRUPTED BY T.S. ERICK AND THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF DALILA. THE MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 12N108W TO 12N114W 09N122W 10N127W 08N132W 07N140W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 08N TO 09N BETWEEN 132W AND 134W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 12N96W... AND FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 115W AND 119W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 04N TO 06N BETWEEN 88W AND 90W...AND FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 106W AND 112W. ...DISCUSSION... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 20N140W TO 27N133W BEYOND 32N128W. MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY- TO-SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LINE FROM 22N122W TO 29N123W BEYOND 32N124W. THIS WIND FLOW IS PART OF A LARGER-SCALE AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT COVERS THE U.S.A. TO THE WEST OF 93W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 21N110W TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF T.S. ERICK. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE LIFT AND OUTFLOW TO CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT IS RELATED TO ERICK. A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 16N113W. THIS LOW CENTER IS THE REMNANT LOW OF FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE DALILA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 15N TO 16N BETWEEN 113W AND 114W. THE LOW CENTER IS DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N140W TO 25N127W TO 19N121W. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERS FORMING ABOUT 250 NM TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA THAT IS ALONG 10N. THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW CENTERS IS BEING AIDED IN PART BY PULSES OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND THE WESTWARD PASSAGE OVERHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO WEATHER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO BE SEEN AS INCREASED AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE WEEK...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE COAST. SEA HEIGHTS WILL REACH 8 FEET FROM A SWELL EVENT...FROM 05N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 92W AND 120W AT 24 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND REACH 10N TO THE EAST OF 112W AT 48 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION TO THE 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WILL BE THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 06N BETWEEN 87W AND 93W. THIS SCENARIO WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ROUGH SURF TO EXPOSED AREAS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA BY LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY. $$ MT