000 AXPZ20 KNHC 072143 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SUN JUL 07 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK AT 07/2100 UTC IS NEAR 20.3N 108.1W. ERICK IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 9 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 50 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. ERICK IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS AS IT MOVES OVER WATERS WITH COMPARATIVELY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND VERTICAL SHEAR. PLEASE READ THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTNT25 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE TIME WHILE THE CENTER OF ERICK IS PASSING NEAR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA EARLY MONDAY. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 107W AND 108W ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONE. SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 19N104W 17N105W 15N106W...AND FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 106W AND 112W. THE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ARE...LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS... HIGH-ENOUGH AMOUNTS OF RAIN THAT MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...AND THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 08N75W IN COLOMBIA...ALONG 08N/09N THROUGH PANAMA...BEYOND 09N83W IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...TO 08N95W AND 11N101W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS DISRUPTED BY T.S. ERICK AND THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF DALILA. THE MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE REMNANT OF DALILA TO 10N120W 10N126W BEYOND 07N140W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED STRONG FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 79W AND 81W...FROM 09N TO 10N BETWEEN 99W AND 100W...FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 106W AND 118W...FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 128W AND 131W... AND FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 138W AND 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 05N TO 06N BETWEEN 86W AND 89W...FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 92W AND 97W. SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 118W AND 124W. ...DISCUSSION... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 20N140W TO 27N133W BEYOND 32N128W. MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY- TO-SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LINE FROM 22N122W TO 29N123W BEYOND 32N124W. THIS WIND FLOW IS PART OF A LARGER-SCALE AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT COVERS THE U.S.A. TO THE WEST OF 93W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 21N110W TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF T.S. ERICK. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE LIFT AND OUTFLOW TO CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT IS RELATED TO ERICK. THE EARLIER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS NEAR CABO CORRIENTES HAS WEAKENED. A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 16.5N 112.5W. THIS LOW CENTER IS THE EXPOSED REMNANT LOW OF FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE DALILA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 16N BETWEEN 113W AND 115W. THE LOW CENTER IS DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N141W TO 25N133W TO 18N122W. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERS FORMING ABOUT 250 NM TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA THAT IS ALONG 10N. THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW CENTERS IS BEING AIDED IN PART BY PULSES OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND THE WESTWARD PASSAGE OVERHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO WEATHER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO BE SEEN AS INCREASED AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE WEEK...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE COAST. SEA HEIGHTS AT OR LOWER THAN 8 FEET COVER THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 125W AND 140W. THE SEA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BE LOWER THAN 8 FEET DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS OR SO...AND THEN STAY LOWER THAN 8 FEET THROUGH 48 HOURS. THIS IS LEFTOVER NORTHERLY SWELL FROM AN EARLIER SURGE OF STRONG TO NEAR GALE N WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA YESTERDAY. SEA HEIGHTS WILL REACH 8 FEET FROM A SWELL EVENT...FROM 03N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 93W AND 116W AT 24 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND REACH 10N TO THE EAST OF 114W AT 48 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION TO THE 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WILL BE THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 06N BETWEEN 86W AND 92W. THIS SCENARIO WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ROUGH SURF TO EXPOSED AREAS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA BY LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY. $$ MT