000 AXPZ20 KNHC 071603 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SUN JUL 07 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF RECENTLY DOWNGRADED TROPICAL STORM ERICK AT 07/1500 UTC IS NEAR 20.0N 107.3W. ERICK IS MOVING NW AT 9 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 75 KNOTS. ERICK IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THEN NEXT 48 HRS AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE AND VERTICAL SHEAR. PLEASE READ THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTNT25 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. EICK IS FORECAST TO THE PASS NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ON MON...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE S AND SW QUADRANTS. EXPECT DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE AFFECTED AREAS OF MEXICO AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NW COLOMBIA TO SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...AND TO 08N90W TO 11N10W. IT RESUMES FROM THE 1007 MB REMNANT LOW OF DALILA NEAR 17N113W TO 10N127W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS W OF 138W...AND WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 128W AND 130W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 97W-100W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 12N107W TO 11N112W...AND WITHIN 45 NM OF 12N91W. ...DISCUSSION... A COMPLEX UPPER PATTERN IS DRIVING THE WEATHER E OF ABOUT 112W THIS MORNING. AN UPPER CYCLONE IS SHIFTING W ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO...BETWEEN A BROAD UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER NEW MEXICO/W TEXAS AND ANOTHER SMALLER UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER S CENTRAL MEXICO. THIS SET UP CONTINUES TO PROVIDE LIFT AND OUTFLOW TO CONVECTION RELATED TO ERICK...AS WELL A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DIMINISHING WITH TIME JUST TO THE N AND NE OF CABO CORRIENTES. AT THE SURFACE...THE EXPOSED REMNANT LOW OF FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE DALILA IS NEAR 17N113W WITH PRES OF 1007 MB. ONLY A SMALL BURST OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN ABOUT 100 NM SW OF THE LOW. THE LOW IS DRIFTING TO THE SE...BUT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HRS. A HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32N135W TO NEAR 24N125W. FARTHER SOUTH...DESPITE WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF SW FLOW INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE... CONVECTION OVERALL REMAINS FAIRLY LIMITED DUE TO SUBSIDENT NE FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN THAT STRETCHES SW ACROSS HONDURAS AND TO NEAR 05N92W. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRES AREAS FORMING ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 110W OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AIDED IN PART BY PULSES OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH GAP FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND THE WESTWARD PASSAGE OVERHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO WEATHER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO BE SEEN AS INCREASED AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE WEEK...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE COAST. SEAS TO 9 FT REMAIN OVER THE WATERS N OF 23N BETWEEN 125W AND 135W. THIS IS LEFTOVER NORTHERLY SWELL FROM AN EARLIER SURGE OF STRONG TO NEAR GALE N WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA YESTERDAY. WHILE THESE WINDS ARE STILL ACTIVE OFF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA AND MODEL DATA INDICATE ONLY MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS N OF 20N W OF 125W...BETWEEN HIGH PRES NW OF THE AREA AND PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BAJA. THE N SWELL WILL DECAY TO LESS THAN 8 FT THROUGH TONIGHT AS FORECAST BY MODELS. ALTIMETER DATA AND TOGA-TAO BUOY OBSERVATIONS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS INDICATE THAT A LARGE AREA OF SW SWELL S OF 10N IS STARTING TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT. THIS WILL BE BRIEF AS A NEW ROUND OF S SWELL WITH SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT ADVERTISED BY WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SURGES N OF THE EQUATOR MON...COVERING THE WATERS S OF 08N BETWEEN 80W AND 120W BY EARLY TUE...AND BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR ROUGH SURF TO EXPOSED AREAS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA BY LATE TUE/EARLY WED. $$ AGUIRRE