000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070906
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1005 UTC SUN JUL 07 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERICK AT 07/0900 UTC IS NEAR 19.2N 
106.5W. ERICK IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD 9 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 
SPEEDS ARE 70 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 85 KNOTS. ERICK IS FORECAST TO 
WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM BY THE END OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR 
SO. PLEASE READ THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTNT25 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER 
MIATCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE CENTER OF ERICK IS 
ABOUT 75 NM OFF THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN STATE OF JALISCO. 
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER OF 
ERICK...AS WELL AS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF NAYARIT FROM 20N 
TO 23N. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER 
ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN MANZANILLO AND CABO CORRIENTES THROUGH 
THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP 
CURRENTS...AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA AT 07/0900 UTC IS NEAR 
16.8N 113.0W. DALILA IS MOVING EASTWARD 1 KNOT. THE ESTIMATED 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 
SPEEDS ARE 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE 
LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/ 
WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION 
IS APPARENT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...   
     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 09N94W TO 
12N98W...THEN CONTINUES FROM THE REMNANT LOW OF DALILA NEAR 
17N113W TO 12N116W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
NOTED FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 100W AND 105W...AND FROM 09N TO 
10N BETWEEN 113W AND 121W.

...DISCUSSION... 

A COMPLEX UPPER PATTERN IS DRIVING THE WEATHER E OF 110W THIS 
MORNING. AN UPPER CYCLONE IS SHIFTING W ACROSS CENTRAL 
MEXICO...BETWEEN A BROAD UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER NEW MEXICO/W 
TEXAS AND ANOTHER SMALLER UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER S CENTRAL 
MEXICO. THIS IS PROVIDING LIFT AND OUTFLOW TO CONVECTION RELATED 
TO ERICK...AS WELL A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS N OF ERICK NEAR 
CABO CORRIENTES. 

FARTHER SOUTH...DESPITE WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF SW FLOW 
INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER 
MOISTURE...CONVECTION IS FAIRLY LIMITED DUE TO SUBSIDENT NE FLOW 
ALOFT BETWEEN THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND AN 
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH NICARAGUA 
AND COSTA RICA TO 05N85W. 

GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRES 
AREAS FORMING ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 110W OVER THE NEXT 
SEVERAL DAYS...AIDED IN PART BY PULSES OF MODERATE TO 
OCCASIONALLY FRESH GAP FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND THE 
WESTWARD PASSAGE OVERHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE ONLY 
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT WILL BE INCREASED AREAS OF SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE WEEK PARTICULARLY NEAR THE COAST.

SEAS TO 9 FT REMAIN OVER THE WATERS N OF 23N BETWEEN 125W AND 
135W. THIS IS LEFTOVER NORTHERLY SWELL FROM AN EARLIER SURGE OF 
STRONG TO NEAR GALE N WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA 
YESTERDAY. WHILE THESE WINDS ARE STILL ACTIVE OFF CENTRAL 
CALIFORNIA...SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE ONLY MODERATE TO FRESH 
WINDS N OF 20N W OF 125W...BETWEEN HIGH PRES NW OF THE AREA AND 
PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BAJA. THE N 
SWELL WILL DECAY THROUGH TONIGHT BELOW 8 FT.

ALTIMETER DATA AND TOGA-TAO BUOY OBSERVATIONS OVER THE PAST 12 
HOURS INDICATE THAT A LARGE AREA OF SW SWELL S OF 10N IS 
STARTING TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT. THIS INTERLUDE WILL BE BRIEF AS 
A NEW ROUND OF S SWELL WITH SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT PUSHES N OF 
THE EQUATOR MON...COVERING THE WATERS S OF 10N E OF 115W BY 
EARLY TUE...AND BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR ROUGH SURF TO EXPOSED 
AREAS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA BY LATE TUE/EARLY WED.

$$ 

CHRISTENSEN