000 AXPZ20 KNHC 070325 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SUN JUL 07 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERICK AT 07/0300 UTC IS NEAR 18.7N 105.7W. ERICK IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD 8 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 70 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 85 KNOTS. ERICK IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM BY THE END OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. PLEASE READ THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTNT25 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE CENTER OF ERICK IS ABOUT 80 NM TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO... AND ABOUT 345 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE ALONG THE ADJACENT COASTLINE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 105W AND 107W...FROM 19N TO 20N BETWEEN 106W AND 107W...AND IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF MEXICO FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 104W AND 106W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 103W AND 116W. THE HAZARDS THAT ARE AFFECTING LAND ARE WIND...RAINFALL...AND SURF. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA AT 07/0300 UTC IS NEAR 16.8N 113.0W. DALILA IS MOVING EASTWARD 1 KNOT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/ WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN COSTA RICA NEAR 09N84W TO 10N86W TO 08N92W...CURVING TO 14N100W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS DISRUPTED BY HURRICANE ERICK AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA. THE MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 15N114W TO 10N125W TO 08N133W BEYOND 08N140W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 133W AND 137W. SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 14N93W 10N96W...AND FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 100W AND 102W. ...DISCUSSION... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 20N140W TO 25N130W BEYOND 32N124W. MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LINE FROM 20N121W TO 27N126W BEYOND 32N124W. THIS WIND FLOW IS PART OF A LARGER- SCALE AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT COVERS THE U.S.A. TO THE WEST OF 96W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF 116W. MUCH OF THAT MOISTURE IS ATTRIBUTED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH...HURRICANE ERICK... AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA. UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS CUTTING ACROSS THE AREAS OF THE MONSOON TROUGH-RELATED CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT ARE BETWEEN 87W AND 110W. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PREVAIL OFF SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. A WEAK SURGE OF TRADE WINDS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WILL DELIVER BRIEF PULSES OF WIND TO 20 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT DEPICTING THE LIFE CYCLE OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT FORMS AND DISSIPATES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE UPPER LEVEL WIND PATTERN IS NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THIS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL PERSIST. IT IS MOST PROBABLE THAT THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION MAY NOT HAPPEN. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL NOT DEEPEN, AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE WEAKENING GAP WINDS THAT HAVE BEEN SUSTAINING IT. THE SEA HEIGHTS THAT ARE IN THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF HURRICANE ERICK ARE JUST LOWER THAN 8 FEET...BASED ON ALTIMETER PASS DATA. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE SEA HEIGHTS TO REACH 8 FEET IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...TO THE SOUTH OF 5N BETWEEN 93W AND 115W. $$ MT