000 AXPZ20 KNHC 062204 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SAT JUL 06 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERICK AT 06/2100 UTC IS NEAR 18.1N 105.0W. ERICK IS MOVING NORTHWEST 8 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 70 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 85 KNOTS. ERICK IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AT THIS STRENGT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. PLEASE READ THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTNT25 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPEP5/ WTPZ35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE CENTER IS APPROXIMATELY 90 NM TO THE SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ALONG THE ADJACENT COASTLINE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 104W AND 106W...AND FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 105W AND 109W. SCATTERED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 104W AND 108W...AND WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 17N101W 14N103W 11N105W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 110W AND 115W. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA AT 06/2100 UTC IS NEAR 17.0N 113.1W. DALILA IS STATIONARY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/ WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED STRONG FROM 16N TO 17N BETWEEN 114W AND 115W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN COSTA RICA NEAR 09N83W TO 07N90W...CURVING TO 10N97W AND 15N100W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS DISRUPTED BY HURRICANE ERICK AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA. THE MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 13N116W TO 9N131W BEYOND 9N140W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 127W AND 133W...AND FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 93W AND 94W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 84W AND 87W...AND FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 133W AND 140W. ...DISCUSSION... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 20N138W 30N126W BEYOND 32N125W. MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 23N TO THE NORTHEAST OF 23N120W 29N123W 32N124W. THIS WIND FLOW IS PART OF A LARGER-SCALE AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT COVERS THE U.S.A. TO THE WEST OF 96W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF 116W. MUCH OF THAT MOISTURE IS ATTRIBUTED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH...HURRICANE ERICK... AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA. UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS CUTTING ACROSS THE AREAS OF THE MONSOON TROUGH-RELATED CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT ARE BETWEEN 87W AND 110W. WHILE LIGHT SW WINDS PREVAIL OFF SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA CURRENTLY...A WEAK SURGE OF TRADE WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL DELIVER BRIEF PULSES TO 20 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT DEPICTING A WEAK LOW PRES AREA FORMING BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND INTO EARLY SUN NEAR 08N92W. THE UPPER PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THE NE SHEAR OVER THIS SURFACE LOW WILL PERSIST... ...IMPEDING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND NOT ALLOWING THE LOW TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE WEAKENING GAP WINDS THAT HAD BEEN SUSTAINING IT. $$ MT