000 AXPZ20 KNHC 061556 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SAT JUL 06 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF RECENTLY UPGRADED HURRICANE ERICK AT 06/1500 UTC IS NEAR 17.7N 104.3W. ERICK IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 8 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB. ERICK HAS REACH MINIMAL HURRICANE FORCE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 70 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 85 KNOTS. ERICK IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE IT BEGINS TO WEAKEN OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. PLEASE READ THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE CENTER IS APPROXIMATELY 90 NM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ALONG THE ADJACENT COASTLINE. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NW QUADRANT...AND 90 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NE QUADRANT. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SE QUADRANT...AND 150 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SW QUADRANT. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION IN THE OUTER MOST BANDS ARE MOVING ALONG THE COAST FROM MICHOACAN TO CABO CORRIENTES... AND SPREADING NW TO THE WATERS BETWEEN CABO CORRIENTES AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY ALONG THE COAST WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN GUERRERO...SOUTHERN MICHOACAN... COLIMA...AND SOUTHERN JALISCO MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA AT 06/1500 UTC IS NEAR 17.0N 113.1W. DALILA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 1 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/ WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE BURST OF CONVECTION EARLIER NOTED WITHIN 90 NM SW OF THE CENTER IS RAPIDLY DISSIPATING ...HOWEVER A NEW BURST OF CONVECTION IS NOTED ABOUT 60 NM SW OF THE NOW EXPOSED CENTER. IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW NEAR 17.0N 113.2W BY EARLY THIS EVENING. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W THROUGH WESTERN PANAMA AND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA TO 08N90W AND TO 1099W. IT THEN RESUMES FROM 12N118W TO 09N130W TO 09N138W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 84W AND 85W TO ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 87W-90W...AND ALSO WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 128W-130W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS SEEN FROM 08N-10N BETWEEN 111W-118W. ...DISCUSSION... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC E OF 112W...MUCH IS ATTRIBUTED TO THAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH AND HURRICANE ERICK. CONVECTION ALONG THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND EL SALVADOR IS BEING AIDED BY LIGHT TO MODERATE SW FLOW INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH CONVERGING WITH OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE COAST. DESPITE THE ABUNDANCE OF CONVERGENCE AND THE LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE... SUBSIDENT N TO NE FLOW ALOFT ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 18N97W IS LIMITING LARGE SCALE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT E OF 100W THIS MORNING. THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM THE ANTICYCLONE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO TO ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE LIFTING N NEAR 23N112W. DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR BOTH ERICK AND DALILA. WHILE LIGHT SW WINDS PREVAIL OFF SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA CURRENTLY...A WEAK SURGE OF TRADE WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL DELIVER BRIEF PULSES TO 20 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT DEPICTING A WEAK LOW PRES AREA FORMING BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND INTO EARLY SUN NEAR 08N92W. THE UPPER PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THE NE SHEAR OVER THIS SURFACE LOW WILL PERSIST... ...IMPEDING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND NOT ALLOWING THE LOW TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE WEAKENING GAP WINDS THAT HAD BEEN SUSTAINING IT. ALTIMETER PASSES FROM LAST NIGHT INDICATED SW SWELL FROM ACROSS THE EQUATOR IS STILL MAINTAINING SEAS TO 9 FT S 0F 13N AND E OF 110W. THIS SWELL GROUP WILL DECAY AND REACH THE SHORE THROUGH TODAY...AHEAD OF ANOTHER SURGE OF LONG PERIOD S TO SW EXPECTED TO CROSS THE EQUATOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRESH TO STRONG N FLOW IS NOTED WAS NOTED ON EARLIER ASCAT PASS OFF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...STARTING TO REACH 30N BETWEEN 120W AND 125W. THE WINDS ARE BETWEEN HIGH PRES WELL N OF THE AREA...AND THE LOWER PRES TO OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS THE LOW PRES WEAKENS. RELATED N SWELL WITH HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT WILL PENETRATE AS FAR S AS 21N BETWEEN 125W AND 135W THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE DECAYING LESS THAN 8 FT SUN INTO MON. $$ AGUIRRE