000 AXPZ20 KNHC 060906 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SAT JUL 06 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK AT 06/0900 UTC IS NEAR 17.3N 103.6W. ERICK IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 7 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 60 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 75 KNOTS. ERICK IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH TODAY NEAR 18.0N 104.3W. PLEASE READ THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE CENTER IS APPROXIMATELY 90 NM OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO...BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ALONG THE ADJACENT COASTLINE. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM NE SEMICIRCLE AND 90 SW SEMICIRCLE. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION IS MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST FROM MICHOACAN TO JALISCO. HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY ALONG THE COAST WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN GUERRERO...SOUTHERN MICHOACAN... COLIMA...AND SOUTHERN JALISCO MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA AT 06/0900 UTC IS NEAR 17.0N 113.0W. DALILA IS MOVING WESTWARD 2 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/ WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. DESPITE A RECENT BURST OF CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE CENTER...DALILA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW NEAR 17.0N 113.0W LATER TODAY BY 1800 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH FROM 08N78W THROUGH WESTERN PANAMA AND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA TO 16N96W...THEN RESUMES FROM 13N119W TO 09N135W. ITCZ AXIS FROM 09N135W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 84W AND 86W ALONG OFF COSTA RICA...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 88W AND 90W OFF EL SALVADOR. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 75 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 127W AND 130W. ...DISCUSSION... ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC E OF 110W. CONVECTION IS FLARING OFF COSTA RICA AND EL SALVADOR WHERE LIGHT TO MODERATE SW FLOW INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH IS CONVERGING WITH OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE COAST. DESPITE THE ABUNDANCE OF CONVERGENCE AND THE LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE...SUBSIDENT N TO NE FLOW ALOFT ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 18N97W IS LIMITING LARGE SCALE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT E OF 100W THIS MORNING. THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM THE ANTICYCLONE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO TO ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER 22N112W. DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR BOTH ERICK AND DALILA. WHILE LIGHT SW WINDS PREVAIL OFF SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA CURRENTLY...A WEAK SURGE OF TRADE WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL DELIVER BRIEF PULSES TO 20 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT DEPICTING A WEAK LOW PRES AREA FORMING BY LATE TODAY INTO EARLY SUN NEAR 08N92W. THE UPPER PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THE NE SHEAR OVER THIS SURFACE LOW WILL PERSIST...IMPEDING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND NOT ALLOWING THE LOW TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE WEAKENING GAP WINDS THAT HAD BEEN SUSTAINING IT. ALTIMETER PASSES INDICATE SW SWELL FROM ACROSS THE EQUATOR IS STILL MAINTAINING SEAS TO 9 FT S 0F 13N AND E OF 110W. THIS SWELL GROUP WILL DECAY AND REACH THE SHORE THROUGH TODAY...AHEAD OF ANOTHER SURGE OF LONG PERIOD S TO SW EXPECTED TO CROSS THE EQUATOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. W OF 110W... FRESH TO STRONG N FLOW IS NOTED ON A 06 UTC ASCAT PASS OFF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...STARTING TO REACH 30N BETWEEN 120W AND 125W. THE WINDS ARE BETWEEN HIGH PRES WELL N OF THE AREA...AND THE LOWER PRES TO OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS THE LOW PRES WEAKENS. ASSOCIATED N SWELL WITH HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT WILL PENETRATE AS FAR S AS 21N BETWEEN 125W AND 135W THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE DECAYING LESS THAN 8 FT SUN INTO MON. $$ CHRISTENSEN