000 AXPZ20 KNHC 060323 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SAT JUL 06 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK AT 06/0300 UTC IS NEAR 16.7N 103.5W. ERICK IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD 9 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 60 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 75 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 102W AND 105W...AND ALONG THE MEXICO COAST FROM 19N TO 20N BETWEEN 104W AND 105W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 100W AND 101W...AND FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 99W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 102W AND 116W. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA AT 06/0300 UTC IS NEAR 17.1N 112.6W. DALILA IS MOVING WESTWARD 2 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/ WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. DALILA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AS A DEPRESSION FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN ACTIVITY HAVE BEEN OCCURRING WITH DALILA DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE CURRENT TREND IS FOR A DOWNWARD TREND...LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH FROM 06N77W TO COASTAL CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO EL SALVADOR TO MEXICO NEAR 98W...THEN RESUMES FROM 12N109W TO 08N121W TO 10N133W TO 10N138W. ITCZ AXIS FROM 10N138W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 100W AND 101W...AND FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 99W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG N OF 06N BETWEEN 89W AND 94W...FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 102W AND 116W...AND FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 134W AND 138W. ...DISCUSSION... A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE THAT IS NEAR 33N145W CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTHWESTWARD WITH TIME. ITS CYCLONIC ENVELOPE STILL COVERS THE DISCUSSION AREA TO NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 130W. VERY DRY AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 110W AND 140W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS STRENGTHENING IN THE NORTH CENTRAL WATERS...HELPING TO PRODUCE NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 15 KNOTS TO 20 KNOTS...AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 7 TO 9 FEET ACROSS THE WATERS THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 122W AND 132W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD REACHING ALONG 23N BETWEEN 124W AND 133W ON SATURDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON SUNDAY. THE RESULTING NORTHEASTERLY SWELLS WILL GIVE COMBINED SEAS TO 8 FT...AND THIS WILL PROPAGATE TO THE SOUTHWEST. IT WILL MIX WITH NORTHEASTERLY TRADEWINDS ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 21N TO 24N BETWEEN 130W AND 137W LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AND THEN SUBSIDE TO LOWER THAN 8 FEET ON SUNDAY NIGHT. CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL IS RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS TO 8 FEET ACROSS THE AREA THAT IS FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 93W AND 110W. THIS IS THE CASE...EXCEPT FOR THE 4 TO 6 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS THAT ARE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS...WHICH INTERRUPT THE SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL TRAIN. EXPECT THESE SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO 4 TO 7 FEET ON SUNDAY. BROAD UPPER RIDGING...RESULTING IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...CONTINUES ACROSS THE TROPICS BETWEEN 90W AND 112W. THE DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT IS NEAR TROPICAL CYCLONE ERICK CONTINUES TO BE ENHANCED. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE NOW COVERS THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 05N TO 20N BETWEEN 90W AND 111W. $$ MT