000 AXPZ20 KNHC 052156 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC FRI JUL 05 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK AT 05/2100 UTC IS NEAR 16.2N 102.7W. ERICK IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 9 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 60 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 75 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 101W AND 104W...FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 99W AND 101W... WITHIN 60 NM TO 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 14N102W 12N106W 11N109W...AND FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 96W AND 98W. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA AT 05/2100 UTC IS NEAR 17.1N 112.4W. DALILA IS MOVING WESTWARD 3 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/ WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. DALILA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AS A DEPRESSION FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN ACTIVITY HAVE BEEN OCCURRING WITH DALILA DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. NUMEROUS STRONG WAS PRESENT FROM 05/0600 UTC UNTIL 05/1430 UTC. THAT PRECIPITATION WEAKENED...LEAVING ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 112W AND 113W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 9N84W IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA... TO 10N89W 14N94W 16N98W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS BROKEN UP BY THE WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND TROPICAL STORM ERICK. THE MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 12N113W TO 9N119W 10N129W AND 10N135W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N135W BEYOND 11N140W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 110W AND 113W...AND FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 120W AND 122W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 124W AND 128W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 116W AND 119W. ...DISCUSSION... A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE THAT IS NEAR 32N145W CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTHWESTWARD WITH TIME. ITS CYCLONIC ENVELOPE STILL COVERS THE DISCUSSION AREA TO NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 130W. VERY DRY AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 110W AND 140W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS STRENGTHENING IN THE NORTH CENTRAL WATERS...HELPING TO PRODUCE NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 15 KNOTS TO 20 KNOTS...AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 7 TO 9 FEET ACROSS THE WATERS THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 122W AND 130W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD REACHING ALONG 25N BETWEEN 122W AND 132W ON SATURDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON SUNDAY. THE RESULTING NORTHEASTERLY SWELLS WILL GIVE COMBINED SEAS TO 8 FT...AND THIS WILL PROPAGATE TO THE SOUTHWEST. IT WILL MIX WITH NORTHEASTERLY TRADEWINDS ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 21N TO 25N BETWEEN 122W AND 135W LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AND THEN SUBSIDE TO LOWER THAN 8 FEET ON SUNDAY NIGHT. CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL IS RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS TO 8 FEET ACROSS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE EAST OF 110W. THIS IS THE CASE EXCEPT FOR THE 4 TO 6 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS THAT ARE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS WHICH INTERRUPTED THE SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL TRAIN. EXPECT THESE SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO 4 TO 7 FEET ON SUNDAY. BROAD UPPER RIDGING...RESULTING IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...CONTINUES ACROSS THE TROPICS BETWEEN 90W AND 112W. THE DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT IS NEAR TROPICAL CYCLONE ERICK CONTINUES TO BE ENHANCED. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE NOW COVERS THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 05N TO 20N BETWEEN 90W AND 111W. $$ MT