000 AXPZ20 KNHC 051548 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC FRI JUL 05 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM ERICK IS AT 15.8N 102.1W 998 MB AT 05./1500 UTC MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 9 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 240 NM NW AND WITHIN 120 NM SE SEMICIRCLES. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM 09N- 18N BETWEEN 94W-105W. ERICK IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO HURRICANE TONIGHT AND TRACK GENERALLY WNW FOR NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA IS AT 17.1N 111.7W 1006 MB AT 05/1500 UTC MOVING W OR 265 DEG AT 3 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT NEAR CENTER. THE CENTER OF DALILA IS NOW SURROUNDED BY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19N112W TO 16N112W. DALILA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE WHILE CONTINUING TO DRIFT WESTWARD. SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/ WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS W FROM THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA DISSECTING PANAMA FROM E TO W REACHING THE PACIFIC COAST AT THE BORDER OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA...THEN TURNING NW TO 15N90W WHERE IT LOSES IDENTITY IN THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ACCOMPANYING THE INTENSIFYING TROPICAL CYCLONE ERICK. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS EVIDENT AGAIN S OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA NEAR 11N113W...AND CONTINUES WESTWARD TO 09N134W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...WHICH IN TURN CONTINUES SW TO BEYOND 08N140W. EXCEPT FOR THE CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED NEAR TROPICAL CYCLONE ERICK...ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION...IS NOTED S OF THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...ROUGHLY WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N77W TO 08N90W...WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING INDICATED TO THE E OF 81W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG...AND TO THE S OF THE WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 08N114W TO 09N126W. ...DISCUSSION... A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE W OF THE AREA IS CONTINUING TO SHIFT NW WITH TIME BUT ITS CYCLONIC ENVELOPE STILL DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 25N TO THE W OF 134W. VERY DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE N OF 20N BETWEEN 110W-135W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER THE N- CENTRAL WATERS IS PRODUCING NNE WINDS AT 15-20 KT...AND SEAS 7-9 FT...ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 122-130W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD S REACHING ALONG 25N BETWEEN 122W-132W ON SAT. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON SUN...BUT THE RESULTING NE SWELLS...RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS TO 8 FT...WILL PROPAGATE SW MIXING WITH NE TRADES ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 21-25N BETWEEN 122W-135W LATE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN...THEN SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT ON SUN NIGHT. .CROSS EQUATORIAL S-SW SWELL RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS TO 8 FT ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS TO THE S OF 15N AND TO E OF 110W...EXCEPT FOR SEAS OF 4-6 FT TO NE OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS WHICH INTERRUPTED THE SW SWELL TRAIN. EXPECT THESE SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO 4-7 FT ON SUN. .BROAD UPPER RIDGING RESULTING IN AN AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES OVER THE TROPICS BETWEEN 90W-112W AND IS ENHANCING THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE ERICK. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE NOW COVERS THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE TROPICAL PACIFIC FROM 05N-20N BETWEEN 90W-111W. $$ NELSON