000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050949
TWDEP 

TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1005 UTC FRI JUL 05 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK AT 05/0900 UTC IS NEAR 15.2N 
101.2W. ERICK IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 11 KNOTS. ESTIMATED 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 
SPEED IS 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE LATEST 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTNT25 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N TO 15N 
BETWEEN 100W AND 103W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 98W AND 105W. 

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA AT 05/0900 UTC IS NEAR 
17.2N 111.6W. DALILA IS MOVING WEST AT 4 KNOTS. ESTIMATED 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 
SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTNT24 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS OF 17N112W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...        
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 14N96W THEN RESUMES 
11N113W TO 09N118W TO 09N130W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N130W TO 
08N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 NM MONSOON 
TROUGH BETWEEN 87W AND 96W AND WITHIN 90 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH 
BETWEEN 114W AND 120W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 07N E OF 82W. 

...DISCUSSION... 

W OF 110W...                                                    
A DEEP LAYERED LOW IS JUST NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH A 1015 
MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N145W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW 
FROM THE LOW. THIS IS TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT OF THE SURFACE 
RIDGE TO THE N AND IS PRODUCING SWELL TO THE E OF THE LOW THAT 
IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT S INTO THE AREA. WINDS OF 20 KTS WITH SEAS 
TO 9 FT WILL MOVE INTO THE NE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. 
 
CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL COVERS THE S/CENTRAL AREA  WITH 
SEAS TO 8 FT. THESE WILL SHIFT N SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 
HOURS BEFORE SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8FT. 
 
$$ 
PAW