000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050352
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
0405 UTC FRI JUL 05 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA AT 05/0300 UTC IS NEAR
17.3N 111.0W. DALILA IS MOVING WESTWARD 6 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTNT24 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 17N111W. DALILA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
WESTWARD AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK AT 05/0300 UTC IS NEAR 
14.9N 100.0W. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD 10 KNOTS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. THE MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. 
PLEASE READ THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 100W AND 102W. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 97W AND 100W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...   
     
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS INLAND...FROM 08N78W IN PANAMA...TO 10N85W 
IN COSTA RICA...TO 15N87W HONDURAS...TO 15N91W IN HONDURAS...TO 
16N94W IN SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 
12N103W TO 08N115W TO 10N130W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N130W 
TO 10N136W AND BEYOND 9N140W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 94W AND 95W...AND FROM 08N TO 09N
BETWEEN 110W AND 113W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN
84W AND 87W...FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 86W AND 87W ALONG THE COAST
OF NICARAGUA...FROM 14N TO 15N BETWEEN 92W AND 94W ALONG THE COAST
OF MEXICO...FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 101W AND 106W.

...DISCUSSION... 

A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE IS NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED NEAR 32N145W.
BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE NORTH
OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 130W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 138W. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE NORTH CENTRAL WATERS AS THIS DEEP
LAYERED SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NORTHERLY
WINDS FROM 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 9 FEET WILL
SPREAD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 27N
BETWEEN 122W AND 132W ON FRIDAY...AND REACHING AS FAR TO THE SOUTH
AS 25N BETWEEN 125W AND 130W ON SATURDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX
WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 7 FEET ON SUNDAY. 
 
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S.A. REACHING
SOUTH TEXAS...AND MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 25N. AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO THE NORTH OF DISSIPATING TROPICAL CYCLONE
DALILA. THIS PATTERN SETS UP AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ACROSS
THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS BEING ENHANCED. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE COVERS
THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE TROPICAL PACIFIC FROM 3N TO 20N BETWEEN 87W
AND 114W.       
 
$$ 
MT