000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042158
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
2205 UTC THU JUL 04 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DALILA AT 04/2100 UTC IS NEAR 17.3N 
110.4W. DALILA IS MOVING WESTWARD 6 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST FORECAST/ 
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE 
DETAILS. THE CENTER OF DALILA HAS BEEN EXPOSED DUE TO EASTERLY 
WIND SHEAR. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 
30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 17N BETWEEN 110W AND 111W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE FROM 18N TO 19N BETWEEN 109W AND 111W. DALILA IS 
EXPECTED TRACK WESTWARD AND WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIS 
EVENING. 

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5-E AT 04/2100 UTC IS NEAR 
14.2N 99.2W. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD 9 KNOTS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. 
PLEASE READ THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE AREA THAT IS BOUNDED BY 12N102W 17N100W
16N94W 12N102W. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5-E IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
GRADUALLY TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE THIS EVENING.
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...   
     
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N84W 15N95W...TO T.D. FIVE-E...TO
12N105W 9N112W...11N123W AND 10N133W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
10N133W BEYOND 9N140W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG
FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 91W AND 94W...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 6N TO
7N BETWEEN 80W AND 81W...FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 83W AND 85W...FROM
8N TO 11N BETWEEN 100W AND 110W...FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 112W AND
114W...AND FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 116W AND 121W.

...DISCUSSION... 

A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE IS NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED NEAR 31N144W.
BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE NORTH
OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 130W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF 138W. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE NORTH CENTRAL WATERS AS THIS DEEP
LAYERED SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NORTHERLY
WINDS FROM 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 7 TO 9 FEET WILL
SPREAD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 29N
BETWEEN 123W AND 130W ON FRIDAY...AND REACHING AS FAR TO THE SOUTH
AS 25N BETWEEN 122W AND 132W ON SATURDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX
WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 7 FEET ON SUNDAY. 
 
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S.A. REACHING
SOUTH TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO THE NORTH OF
DISSIPATING TROPICAL CYCLONE DALILA. THIS PATTERN SETS UP AN AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH. THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS BEING ENHANCED. THE RESULTANT
DEBRIS MOISTURE COVERS THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE TROPICAL PACIFIC
FROM 3N TO 20N BETWEEN 87W AND 107W.       
 
$$ 
MT