000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041554
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1605 UTC THU JUL 04 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM DALILA AT 17.4N 109.8W 1003 MB AT 1500 UTC JUL 04 
MOVING W OR 265 DEGREES AT 06 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 
35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. DALILA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH 
EASTERLY WIND SHEAR NOW EXPOSING THE CENTER WITH SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION CURRENTLY OBSERVED WITHIN ONLY 90 NM OVER 
THE W SEMICIRCLE. DALILA IS EXPECTED TRACK WESTWARD AND WEAKEN 
TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIS EVENING. SEE THE LATEST 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTNT24 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5-E HAS FORMED NEAR 13.4N 98.4W 1006 MB AND 
IS MOVING NW OR 305 DEG AT 9 KT. CONVECTION BURST OVER THE PAST 
FEW HOURS WITH NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION 
OBSERVED WITHIN 330 NM OVER THE NW SEMICIRCLE. A RECENT BAND OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER 
THE SE QUADRANT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5-E IS EXPECTED TO 
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE THIS EVENING. SEE 
THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...   
     
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE BORDER OF COLOMBIA
AND PANAMA TURNING W ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA AND ACROSS THE 
SOUTHERN TIP OF PANAMA...THEN TURNING NW REMAINING JUST OFFSHORE THE
PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA TO 13N93W...THEN TURNS W THROUGH THE 
EMBEDDED TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5-E AT 13.4N98.4W...THEN TURNS 
ABRUPTLY SW TO 10N111W...THEN NW TO 13N126W...THEN SW AGAIN TO 
12N130W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN 
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE WHICH IN TURNS CONTINUES SW TO 
BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
OBSERVED ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON 
TROUGH WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A OF LINE FROM 05N77W TO 
15N96W AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10N101W 
TO 09N115W TO 12N120W. THE CONVECTION S OF THE GULF OF PANAMA IS 
ACCOMPANIED BY FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

...DISCUSSION... 

A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE IS NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED AT 31N144W 
WITH ITS CYCLONIC ENVELOPE DOMINATING THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 
22N TO THE W OF 132W. THE ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW HAS 
LEFT A DISSIPATING TROUGH TO THE N OF 25N ALONG 139W ACCOMPANIED 
BY LOCALLY OVERCAST LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS. AS THIS DEEP LAYERED 
SYSTEM SHIFTS WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS HIGH PRESSURE WILL 
STRENGTHEN OVER THE N-CENTRAL WATERS WITH N WINDS AT 15-20 KT 
AND SEAS 7-9 FT SPREADING S ACROSS THE AREA N OF 29N BETWEEN 123-
130W ON FRI...AND REACHING AS FAR S AS 25N BETWEEN 122W-132W ON 
SAT. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 7 FT ON SUN. 
 
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL N AMERICA HAS WEAKENED WITH
ITS BASE RETRACTING N TO ALONG 22N BETWEEN 93W-103W. AN UPPER
ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO THE N OF DISSIPATING TROPICAL CYCLONE 
DALILA. THIS PATTERN SETS UP AN AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER THE
EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND IS ENHANCING THE 
CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED WITH THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE 
NOW COVERING THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE TROPICAL PACIFIC FROM 03N-20N
BETWEEN 87W-107W.       
 
$$ 
NELSON