000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040918
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1005 UTC THU JUL 04 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DALILA IS NEAR 17.5N 108.9W AT 
0900 UTC. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. THE MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT MOVING W 4 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 70 NM W OF CENTER. THE 
CONVECTION HAS DECREASED RAPIDLY OVER THE PASE 6 HOURS. DALILA 
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS COLDER WATER AND CONTINUE TO 
WEAKEN. SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP4 
AND WMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A 1007 MB LOW PRES CENTER IS NEAR 12N97W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO 
STRONG WITHIN 240 NM NW SEMICIRLCE. THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS A HIGH 
CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 
HOURS...AS IT MOVES W-NW ABOUT 10 KT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...   
MONSOON TROUGH 10N85W 1007 MB LOW 12N97W TO 15N105W RESUMES AT 
12N112W AND TO 12N130W. ITCZ FROM 12N130W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERAT TO STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA 
FROM 86W-90W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 08N-10N BETWEEN 
111W-118W.

...DISCUSSION... 
WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION JUST W OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA IS CENTERED NEAR 31N143W. DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE 
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IS N OF 25N E OF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO 
138W. AN  UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR 17N129W. 
WITH RIDGE N TO 30N130W WITH AND E-W RIDGE FROM 15N140W THROUGH 
THE ANTICYCLONE TO 31N113W. EXCEPT FOR THE MOISTURE WITH THE 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA MODERATE TO 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND 
UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 15N W OF 115W.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION EXTENDS FROM 32N136W TO 22N140W.

$$
DGS