000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040312
TWDEP 

TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
0405 UTC THU JUL 04 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DALILA AT 04/0300 UTC IS NEAR
17.6N 108.2W. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
991 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 60 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 75 KNOTS. DALILA IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD 3 KNOTS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 108W AND 110W. THE SUSTAINED
PRECIPITATION IS COMPARATIVELY WEAKER NOW. DALILA IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS COLDER WATER WHILE ENCOUNTERING LESS
FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS.

A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 11.8N 96.4W...MOVING
WESTWARD ABOUT 5 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 
15N96W 12N99W 10N101W...AND FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 100W AND
108W. THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 10 MPH.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...   
     
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 08N78W TO 09N89W TO 09N88W TO THE
1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...TO 10N100W 09N114W 13N123W AND
13N128W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 13N128W TO 12N130W AND 08N140W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 10N TO 13N AND FROM 14N TO 16N.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN
111W AND 120W...FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 86W AND 93W...AND FROM
07N TO 08N BETWEEN 137W AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION... 

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 30N143W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH
OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 127W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N138W
30N138W TO 25N140W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST
OF 22N140W 27N137W 32N137W. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN
IN THE NORTH CENTRAL WATERS...AS THE LOW CENTER SHIFTS MORE
TO THE WEST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NORTH WINDS AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS AND 7 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WILL SPREAD
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 120W AND 130W ON FRIDAY.

$$ 
MT