000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032203
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
2205 UTC WED JUL 03 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM DALILA NEAR 17.4N 108.1W 991 MB AT 2100 UTC JUL 
03 MOVING SW OR 230 DEG AT 3 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT 
GUSTS 75 KT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM
18N TO 19N BETWEEN 108W AND 109W. DALILA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WESTWARD ACROSS COLDER WATER WHILE ENCOUNTERING LESS FAVORABLE
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS. SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ANALYZED ALONG THE MONSOON
TROUGH AT 11.9N 95.9W...AND CONTINUES TO MOVE W ABOUT 5 KT.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN
90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 15N95W TO 12N99W...AND FROM
09N TO 11N BETWEEN 100W AND 102W. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN TO MOVE NW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...   
     
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS 09N84W TO 09N88W TO LOW PRES 11.5N95.9W... 
THEN RESUMES FROM 12N103W TO 10N112W TO 14N122W TO 12N128W. ITCZ 
AXIS 12N128W TO 07N136W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 08N TO 
11N BETWEEN 88W AND 93W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 
04N TO 08N BETWEEN 80W AND 88W...FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 105W 
AND 109W...AND FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 127W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION... 

A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE IS VERTICALLY STACKED AT 30N143 WITH
ITS CYCLONIC ENVELOPE DOMINATING THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 22N
TO THE W OF 129W. THE ASSOCIATED 1009 MB OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW 
HAS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N137W TO 23N140W. AS THE LOW 
SHIFTS FURTHER W OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS HIGH PRESSURE WILL 
STRENGTHEN OVER THE N-CENTRAL WATERS WITH N WINDS AT 15-20 KT 
AND SEAS 7-9 FT SPREADING S ACROSS THE AREA N OF 27N BETWEEN 120-
130W ON FRI.  

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO A BASE 
NEAR 20N96W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NOTED OVER TROPICAL CYCLONE 
DALILA WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO 14N100W. THIS PATTERN SETS 
UP AN AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH AND IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION NEAR THE 
SURFACE LOW AT 12N95W.       
 
$$ 
MT