000 AXPZ20 KNHC 031553 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC WED JUL 03 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE DALILA AT 17.8N 108.0W 987 MB AT 1500 UTC JUL 03 MOVING WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 03 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. DALILA CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATIONS WITH THE LATEST IMAGERY INDICATING MINIMAL HURRICANE STRENGTH. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OVER THE SW QUADRANT WITH SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OBSERVED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19N108W TO 17N109W. DALILA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MINIMAL HURRICANE FOR ANOTHER DAY...THEN TRACK MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS COLDER WATER WHILE ENCOUNTERING LESS FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS...AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM LATE THU. SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ANALYZED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AT 12N95W...AND CONTINUES TO MOVE W ABOUT 5 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER OVER THE NW QUADRANT...AND ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N97W TO 09N101W. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO MOVE NW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM COLOMBIA AT 10N75W TO OVER NORTHERN PANAMA...THEN TURNS NW ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA TO 10N85W...CONTINUES NW TO 12N92W AND THEN W INTO THE EMBEDDED LOW PRESSURE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED NEAR 12N95W. THE MONSOON TROUGH RESUMES WELL SW OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DALILA NEAR 15N123W...AND CONTINUES SW TO 10N130W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE WHICH IN TURNS CONTINUES SW TO BEYOND 06N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED S OF THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ROUGHLY FROM 03N-09N BETWEEN 77W-86W...IN A SINGLE CLUSTER WITHIN 30 NM OF 07.5N99W...AND ALONG THE WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14N126W TO 09N140W. ...DISCUSSION... A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE IS VERTICALLY STACKED AT 30N143 WITH ITS CYCLONIC ENVELOPE DOMINATING THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 22N TO THE W OF 129W. THE ASSOCIATED 1009 MB OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW HAS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N137W TO 23N140W. AS THE LOW SHIFTS FURTHER W OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE N-CENTRAL WATERS WITH N WINDS AT 15-20 KT AND SEAS 7-9 FT SPREADING S ACROSS THE AREA N OF 27N BETWEEN 120- 130W ON FRI. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO A BASE NEAR 20N96W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NOTED OVER TROPICAL CYCLONE DALILA WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO 14N100W. THIS PATTERN SETS UP AN AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AT 12N95W. $$ NELSON