000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030918
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1005 UTC WED JUL 03 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES.. 
HURRICANE DALILA AT 18.1N 107.5W 987 MB AT 0900 UTC JUL 03 
MOVING SW OR 220 DEGREES AT 02 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 65 
GUSTS TO 80 KT. UPPER LEVEL SHEAR HAS DIMINISHED AS UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONE IS OVER DALILA ALLOWING GOOD OUTFLOW FOR THE 
HURRICANE. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 100 NM N SEMICIRCLE 
90 NM S SEMICIRCLE.  SEE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

LOW PRES CENTER 1008 MB HAS FORMED NEAR 12N96W. ENVIRONMENTAL 
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR 
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS DISTURBANCE 
MOVES WESTWARD TO WNW.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF 
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.    
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN
94W-99W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...   
MONSOON TROUGH 10N86W TO LOW PRES 1008 MB AT 12N96W TO 15N99W   
THEN RESUMES FROM 15N111W TO 12N122W. ITCZ 12N122W TO 09N130W TO 
09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 06N TO 12N 
BETWEEN 131W TO 140W.

...DISCUSSION...
WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION JUST W OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA IS CENTERED NEAR 30N142W WITH TROUGH FROM THE 
CIRCULATION TO 23N131W. DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED 
SHOWERS IS N OF 25N E OF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO 135W. AN  UPPER 
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR 16N125W. EXCEPT FOR THE 
MOISTURE WITH THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE NW PORTION OF THE 
AREA MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT 
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 20N W OF 115W. ANOTHER UPPER 
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER TROPICAL STORM 
DALILA...WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT PROVIDING GOOD OUT FLOW FOR 
THE STORM.

A STATIONARY FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION EXTENDS FROM 32N136W TO 22N140W.

$$ 
DGS