000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022200
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
2205 UTC TUE JUL 02 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES.. 
HURRICANE DALILA AT 18.4N 107.2W 987 MB AT 2100 UTC JUL 02 MOVE
W OR 270 DEGREES AT 02 KT.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 65 GUSTS TO
80 KT.  UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS HAVE NOT BEEN TOTALLY FAVORABLE 
TO DALILA AS S-SE WIND SHEAR STILL LINGERS ABOVE IT. NEVERTHELESS
...DALILA CONTINUES TO GET ORGANIZED AND ABLE TO STRENGTHEN...
ALBEIT SLOWER THAN EXPECTED...TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH EARLIER
TODAY.  MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALOFT W OF
HURRICANE THAT HAS BEEN CAUSING THE SHEAR TO DRIFT W ALLOWING
DALILA TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE STATUS THROUGH THU BEFORE REACHING
COOLER WATERS AND START ITS DOWNWARD TREND.  NUMEROUS MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N SEMICIRCLE...90 NM SW AND
60 SE QUADRANTS.  SEE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

NEW LOW PRES CENTER 1009 MB HAS FORMED 800 NM SE OF DALILA JUST
S OF GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE CROSSING YUCATAN
PENINSULA.  LOW PRES IS EMBEDDED IN WARM MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS
WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND HAS SHOWN GOOD CYCLONIC
TURNING.  MAIN GUIDANCE DIFFERENCE LIES IN TIMING AND INTENSITY
OF LOW PRES WITH AGREED W-NW DRIFT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED WITHIN 180 NM NW AND 90 NM SE 
SEMICIRCLES.  SYSTEM EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH 50 PERCENT POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION WITHIN
THE NEXT 48 HRS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...   
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 10N86W TO LOW PRES 1009 MB AT 12N94W
TO 17N100W.  IT THEN RESUMES FROM 16N120W TO 11N129W THEN ITCZ
AXIS TO 10N132W TO BEYOND 11N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION N OF 07N E OF 100W AND WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS
W OF 120W.

...DISCUSSION...
WELL DEFINED DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE VERTICALLY STACKED AT 31N140W
WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING TO 22N137W TO 18N140W. 
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRES 1006 MB WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING
FROM 32N137W TO 23N140W.  REINFORCING NW SURGE BRING FRESH TO
STRONG S-SE BREEZE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-9 FT TO NW CO1RNER OF
BASIN E OF FRONT N OF 24N W OF 135W TONIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDING ALONG W SIDE OF LONGWAVE TROUGH 
OVER TEXAS AND EASTERN MEXICO BRINGS ADDITIONAL ENERGY TO LOW
PRES AT 12N94W ENHANCING ITS CHANCES OF TROPICAL ORGANIZATION.
SEE DISCUSSION UNDER SPECIAL FEATURES. 

...ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL BUILDS UP SEAS TO 8 FT S OF 03N W OF
96W WED...BUT START SUBSIDING LATE THU AND FRI. 

$$ 
WALLY BARNES