000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020301
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                         
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
0405 UTC TUE JUL 02 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE... 
TROPICAL STORM DALILA CENTER AT 18.2N 106.9W WITH CENTRAL PRES
992 MB MOVING W-NW AT 5 KT.  MAXIMUM WINDS 60 GUST TO 75 KT WITH
SEAS UP TO 22 FT.  DALILA FORECAST TO FURTHER INTENSIFY DURING
NEXT 24 HOURS...REACHING MINIMUM HURRICANE INTENSITY NEAR 18.3N 
107.4W LATE TONIGHT.  DALILA IS EXPECTED TO TURN W TUE AND START
A WEAKENING TREND TUE NIGHT. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 13N108W TO 11N115W TO 12N122W
TO 11N127W TO 12N132W TO 10N137W THEN ITCZ TO BEYOND 10N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N AND 180 NM S OF 
AXIS FROM 115W TO 132W. 

...DISCUSSION... 
WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 34N139W
INTRODUCING ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO NW CORNER OF E PAC AND A LOW
PRES CENTER 1016 MB WHERE REMNANT TROUGH...PREVIOUSLY COSME...
STILL LINGERS.  THERE COULD BE A TEMPORARY SURGE OF WINDS WITH
WEATHER DETERIORATING DURING NEXT 24-36 HRS N OF 25N W OF 135W.  

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE PREVIOUSLY NW OF DALILA WEAKENED AND OPENED
INTO A NEGATIVE TILTED TROUGH FROM 25N124W TO 13N117W.  WHILE 
NOT COMPLETELY GONE...IT HAS DIMINISHED VERTICAL SHEAR ABOVE
DALILA AND ALLOWED THE STORM TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AND TURN MORE
IN A WESTERLY COURSE.

...ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
THE CROSSING OF A TROUGH ACROSS YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH PLENTY
OF WARM TROPICAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND VERY ACTIVE MONSOON
TROUGH MAY PROMPT TROPICAL ORGANIZATION IN THE REGION.  MODEL
GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS POINT TO LOW PRES CENTER FORMING MON NIGHT OR
TUE JUST S OF GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES
W-NW THROUGHOUT REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. 

$$
WALLY BARNES