000 AXPZ20 KNHC 012136 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC MON JUL 01 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM DALILA CENTER AT 17.9N 106.5W WITH CENTRAL PRES 996 MB MOVING NW AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM WINDS 55 GUST TO 65 KT WITH SEAS UP TO 22 FT. DALILA FORECAST TO FURTHER INTENSIFY DURING NEXT 24 HOURS...REACHING MINIMUM HURRICANE INTENSITY NEAR 18.4N 107.8W BY LATE TUE. DALILA IS EXPECTED TO TURN W TUE NIGHT AND START A WEAKENING TREND AS IT MOVES W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 15N109W TO 11N127W 12N131W TO 10N137W THEN ITCZ TO BEYOND 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM N AND 45 NM S OF AXIS FROM120W TO 131W. ...DISCUSSION... WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 34N138W INTRODUCING ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO NW CORNER OF E PAC WHERE REMNANT TROUGH...PREVIOUSLY COSME...STILL REMAINS. THERE COULD BE A TEMPORARY SURGE WITH WEATHER DETERIORATING DURING NEXT 24- 36 HRS N OF 25N W OF 135W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE PREVIOUSLY NW OF DALILA HAS WEAKENED AND OPENED INTO A NEGATIVE TILTED TROUGH FROM 24N125W TO 18N117W. WHILE NOT COMPLETELY GONE...IT HAS DIMINISHED THE VERTICAL SHEAR ABOVE DALILA AND ALLOWED THE STORM TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AND TURN MORE IN A WESTERLY COURSE. ...ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS... THE ENTRY OF A TROUGH ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH PLENTY OF WARM TROPICAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND VERY ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH MAY PROMPT SOME TROPICAL ORGANIZATION IN THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS POINT TO LOW PRES CENTER FORMING EARLY IN THE WEEK JUST S OF GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES W-NW THROUGH THE WEEK. $$ WALLY BARNES