000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010253
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
0405 UTC MON JUL 01 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE... 
TROPICAL STORM DALILA AT 16.8N 104.4W WITH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES
1001 MB MOVE NW AT 9 KT.  MAXIMUM SUSTYAINED WINDS ARE 40 GUST
TO 50 KT.  SYSTEM MAKING SLOW INTENSIFICATION PROGRESS...BUT 
CERTAINLY NOT AS QUICKLY AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.  DALILA REMAINS
UNDER PERSISTENT S-SE WIND SHEAR THAT MAY BE CURTAILING ITS 
GROWTH. LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
AS A MOIST WARM TROPICAL AIR MASS ENVELOPES DALILA AND SEA 
TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE 28 C DEG.  DALILA IS A SMALL STORM IN 
SIZE AND EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY TONIGHT AND MON.  IT HAS 
BEGUN ITS TURNING TO THE NW RUNNING PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF
MEXICO AND EXPECTED TO FINALLY TURN W ALONG 19N AWAY FROM LAND
MON NIGHT.  

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 14N108W TO 12N124W THEN ITCZ
TO 11N127W TO 13N132W TO BEYOND 09N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM S AND 45 NM N OF AXIS
W OF 130W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE JUST NW OF TROPICAL STORM DALILA HAS NOT 
MOVED W AS FAST AS EXPECTED AND THEREFORE MAINTAINS MORE SHEAR
OVER DALILA CURTAILING ITS POTENTIAL GROWTH.  NEVERTHELESS...
STORM HAS MADE SLOW STREGTHENING TODAY AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY THEN BEGIN ITS DOWNWARD TREND.  DALILA REMAINS
WRAPPED IN ABUNDANT WARM MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS AND OVER WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  

FURTHER W...LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTEND
FROM WELL DEFINED CYCLONE WELL N OF AREA TO 32N140W TO 20N136W.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER E PAC BUT STALL AS 
CYCLONE SHIFT NE AND PULLS SUPPORT FROM FRONT.

...ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
HIGH PRES CENTER 1018 MB AT 34N131W FORCES REMNANTS OF COSME 
OUT OF AREA BUT IS THEN FORCED OUT BY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. 
ONLY LINGERING EFFECTS EXPECTED ARE 8-9 FT N OF 20N W OF 136W
TO SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT.

$$
WALLY BARNES