000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301511
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1605 UTC SUN JUN 30 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE... 
TROPICAL STORM DALILA CENTERED AT 15.5N 103.2W WITH ESTIMATED 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES 1003 MB...MOVING NNW AT 8 KT. WITH 
SOUTHERLY SHEAR AFFECTING THE SYSTEM...MUCH OF THE CONVECTION IS 
COVERING THE NE SEMICIRCLE. DALILA IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER 
INTENSIFY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NW OVER THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS...REACHING AN INTENSITY OF 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT NEAR 
18.6N 106.4W BY TUE MORNING. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 14N106W TO 11N120W WHERE 
LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO 
11N131W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED WITHIN 60 NM S AND 30 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 128W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1019 MB IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N133W 
WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 20N120W. REMNANT LOW 
PRES OF WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY COSME IS CENTERED NEAR 23N138W AND 
HAS FILLED TO 1010 MB. THE COMBINATION OF FILLING LOW PRESSURE 
WITH WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA HAS LOOSENED THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT ENOUGH TO DIMINISH WINDS NORTH OF THE LOW 
BELOW 25 KT. THERE IS A LINGERING AREA OF 8 FT SEAS OVER THE 
FORECAST WATERS FROM 22N TO 28N W OF 136W. THE AREA OF LOW 
PRESSURE WILL FURTHER WEAKEN TO A TROUGH OVER THE NEXT DAY WITH 
ASSOCIATED SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT. THIS TROUGH WILL LINGER 
OVER THE FAR NW WATERS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE 
WEEK...THOUGH WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY 
CRITERIA. 

THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS BROKE DOWN WITH THE FORMATION OF TROPICAL 
STORM DALILA. ONE LINGERING SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH 
EXTENDS ACROSS COSTA RICA AND LIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF 
CENTRAL AMERICA TO SOUTHERN MEXICO. THIS LOCATION OF THE MONSOON 
TROUGH IS KEEPING THE HEAVIEST ACTIVE CONVECTION OVER THE WATERS 
SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ROUGHLY N OF 11N AND E OF 95W. 

WITH DEEP LAYER TROUGHING PREVAILING OVER THE FAR W CARIBBEAN 
WATERS...THE CARIBBEAN JET REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK AND LIMITED IN 
LONGITUDINAL EXTENT...WITH NO DOWNSTREAM EXTENSION TOWARD A 
PAPAGAYO JET. AS A RESULT...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND 
FLOW INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS THROUGH 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL ALSO REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP BY MIDWEEK AS THE TROPICAL WAVE/TROUGH 
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS SHIFTS FURTHER TO THE 
WEST...AND ASSOCIATED NE WINDS FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS.
 
$$
AL