000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292200
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
2205 UTC SAT JUN 29 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
LOW PRES CENTER AT 12N103W 1008 MB HAS BEEN SLOW TO GET ITS ACT
TOGETHER INTO TROPICAL CYCLONE.  UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS ILL-
DEFINED AND A CYCLONE TO ITS NW BRINGS STRONG CONVERGING FLOW 
ALOFT UNFAVORABLE TO THE OUTFLOW.  WHILE CONVECTION HAS NOT
REALLY KICKED IN YET...CURVING BANDS INDICATE SOME TROPICAL
ORGANIZATION IS TAKING PLACE AROUND A ELLIPTICAL CENTER NEAR ITS
POSITION.  OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT
WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 28 DEG AND WARM MOIST AIR
MASS SURROUNDING LOW PRES.  MODEL GUIDANCE FAVOR ITS SLOW
DEVELOPMENT WITH MOST SOLUTIONS POINTING TO A N DRIFT APPROACHING
THE COAST THEN TURNING NW AND EVENTUALLY TURNING W ALONG 20N AWAY
FROM COAST.  NHC HAS TAGGED LOW PRES AT 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN NEXT 48 HRS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 11N86W TO 1007 MB LOW PRES AT 12N103W
TO 09N115W TO 09N129W THEN ITCZ TO 11N125W.  ITCZ RESUMES FROM 
10N130W TO BEYOND 06N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 300 NM OF AXIS E OF 114W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM S OF AXIS FROM 104W TO 
114W.

...DISCUSSION... 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER EL SALVADOR ADVECTS ABUNDANT WARM
TROPICAL AIR MASS UNTO E PAC ALONG MONSOON TROUGH AND THE 
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRES CENTER.  REMNANT CIRCULATION OF COSME
DRIFT W WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION AND EXPECTED TO BE OUT
OF THE AREA EARLY MON.  FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND 8-10 FT SEAS 
REMAIN OVER N SEMICIRCLE THROUGH ITS PATH OVER E PAC AS 1020 MB 
HIGH PRES CENTER N OF AREA KEEPS A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT.   

$$
WALLY BARNES