000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291507
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1605 UTC SAT JUN 29 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
LOW PRES IS CENTERED AT 11.5N104W 1008 MB. THERE WAS NO DEEP 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM EARLIER THIS MORNING...BUT 
A CONVECTIVE BAND HAS STARTED TO FORM ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE 
SYSTEM AS THE MORNING HAS PROGRESSED. WITH THE LOW PRESSURE 
CENTERED OVER 28 DEGREE CELSIUS WATER AND DECREASING VERTICAL 
SHEAR OF THE HORIZONTAL WIND...THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS 
LOW BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 11N86W TO 1008 MB LOW PRES 
AT 11.5N104W TO 09N116W TO 11N125W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
10N129W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 270 NM S AND 120 NM N OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 84W AND 90W. NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 210 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 
94W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 97W AND 101W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 240 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 106W AND 
111W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM N AND 
90 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 129W AND 131W. 

...DISCUSSION... 
THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF COSME IS CENTERED NEAR 22N132W. HIGH 
PRESSURE 1020 MB IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 35N130W WITH 
ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 19N112W. THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE REMNANT LOW AND THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE 
IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE N SEMICIRCLE OF 
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE LOW 
PRESSURE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO FILL AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER 
WEAKENS. THIS WILL LOOSEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ENOUGH TO 
DIMINISH WINDS BELOW 25 KT BY SUN MORNING. THE LOW PRESSURE 
CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS. THE LOW WILL MOVE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MON MORNING 
WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT OVER THE FORECAST 
WATERS. OTHER THAN WINDS AND SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 
FEATURE...AND THE AREA MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES 
SECTION...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA 
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 
 
$$
AL