000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290926
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1005 UTC SAT JUN 29 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
LOW PRES CENTER AT 11N105W 1008 MB THE DEEP CONVECTION IS REMOVED
WELL TO W  OF THE LOW HOWEVER IT STILL REMAINS UNDER FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT AND AT LOWER LEVELS.  WITH SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 28 DEG...SURROUNDED BY WARM MOIST AIR MASS. 
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF LOW BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING 
THE NEXT 48 HRS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 11N86W TO 1008 MB LOW PRES AT 12N127W TO
12N110W TO 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 180 NM
EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 86W-95W AND FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN
106W-112W.

...DISCUSSION... 
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA IS CENTERED NEAR 28N139W WITH RIDGE 
EXTENDING NE TO ANOTHER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 29N128W 
RIDGE CONTINUES TO 32N126W. SUBSIDING AIR MASS ALOFT KEEPS 
REGION N OF 15N W OF 125W VERY DRY AND STABLE. AN UPPER LEVEL 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH TROUGH ACROSS 
CENTRAL MEXICO TO 20N114W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS 
ENHANCING CONVECTION FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 85W AND 95W

REMNANT LOW PRES...PREVIOUSLY COSME...NEAR 22N131W 1006 MB.
20-25 KT WINDS ARE WITHIN 270 N SEMICIRCLE. LATEST SATELLITE 
IMAGERY SHOW STILL A GOOD CIRCULATION BUT NO CONVECTION.

SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE IS N OF THE REMNANTS OF COSME.
 
$$
DGS