000 AXPZ20 KNHC 281558 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC FRI JUN 28 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... LOW PRES CENTERED NEAR 11N104W 1009 MB IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. LATEST AND CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 10N104W TO 11N104W TO 12N103W. A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IN CLUSTERS IS JUST ENE OF THE LOW...N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 94W-102W. THE NWP MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME BETTER DEVELOPED IN THE NEAR FUTURE AS IT MOVES IN A NW TO N MOTION UNDER MORE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS W FROM COLOMBIA AT 10N75W TO ACROSS NRN COSTA RICA TO 13N95W TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOW AT 11N104W TO 13N115W WHERE IT LOSES IDENTITY IN THE FAR SE PERIPHERY OF THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF COSME. THE MONSOON TROUGH THEN RESUMES AT 13N124W TO 07N135W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 94W-102W...AND ALSO WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 106W-109W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 109W-111W...AND WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 111W-113W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 124W-128W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AT 30N127W HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING NE OF THE AREA TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THE ANTICYCLONE IS GRADUALLY SLIDING NEWD AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST NW OF THE AREA PRESSES EWD. AT THE SURFACE...A DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS JUST NW OF THE AREA CROSSING 32N140W. MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NEWD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH JUST TO THE NW OF THE AREA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS SW FROM THE SAME ANTICYCLONE TO A COL REGION AT 22N138W...AND TO ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE JUST W OF THE AREA AT 19N142W. SATELLITE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY MODERATE SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS W OF A LINE FROM 32N122W TO 22N131W TO 10N131W. PATCHES OF BROKEN STRATOCUMLUS CLOUDS MOVING WSW ARE SEEN FROM 18N-25N W OF 136W. OVER THE ERN PORTION OF THE AREA...A SMALL UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS IDENTIFIED NEAR 26N118W WITH A RIDGE STRETCHING NEWD TO CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND SE TO NEAR 15N115W. AN INVERTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING W EXTENDS FROM 27N124W TO 20N128W TO NEAR 13N130W. THE TROUGH PASSES OVER THE REMNANT LOW OF COSME ANALYZED NEAR 22N126W WITH A PRES OF 1006 MB. AN ASCAT PASS FROM OVERNIGHT INDICATED 25-30 KT WINDS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE LOW IN THE NW AND NW QUADRANTS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID TO UPPER CLOUDS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE TROUGH. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 270 NM NW AND N QUADRANTS OF LOW...AND ALSO FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 124W-131W. THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROVIDE UPPER DIFFLUENCE AIDING DEEP CONVECTION IN THE TROPICS BETWEEN 115W-120W WHERE DEVELOPING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ARE NOTED WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 12N117.5W TO 14N115W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 11N120W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS A TROUGH SW TO NEAR 14N109W. THE TROUGH HELPING TO SUSTAIN DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO ITS W WHERE VERY COLD CLOUD TOP CONVECTION AS DESCRIBED ABOVE UNDER ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH IS OCCURRING. IT IS ALSO PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT FLOW PATTERN OVER THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOW. THE MOISTURE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS COMBINING WITH THAT BETWEEN 115W-120W TO FORM ONE VAST POOL OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE E OF ABOUT 122W...WITH SOME OF THIS MOISTURE STREAMING ENE ACROSS SE MEXICO AND MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THIS PORTION OF THE AREA WITH RESPECT TO THE POOL OF MOISTURE AND RELATED DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS AS THE MONSOON TROUGH THERE CONTINUES TO BE RATHER ACTIVE AS IT LIFTS N WITH THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOW. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A 1015 MB SURFACE HIGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE NE PART OF THE AREA AT 24N114.5W WITH A RIDGE SE TO W CENTRAL MEXICO. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. $$ AGUIRRE