000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280244
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
0405 UTC FRI JUN 28 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
REMNANT LOW PRES...PREVIOUSLY COSME...AT 21.0N 123.4W 1005 MB AT
0000 UTC JUN 28 MOVING W-NW AT 15 KT.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 30
GUSTS TO 40 KT.  LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW STILL A GOOD 
CIRCULATION AND SOME SMALL AREA OF MODERATE CONVECTION RETURNING
IN SW QUADRANT...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO BE CONSIDERED A COMEBACK BY
THE SYSTEM.  COSME CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER REGION OF VERY DRY AIR
MASS...MODERATE WIND SHEAR AND COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE.
THIS VERY ADVERSE ENVIRONMENT TOOK A HEAVY TOLL IN EARLIER IN
COSME'S INTENSITY AND IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
LAST ADVISORY ON COSME WAS ISSUED BY NHC AT 2100 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 11N101W TO 1010 MB
LOW PRES AT 09N105W TO 10N110W AND RESUMES FROM 10N128W TO 
06N135W THEN ITCZ TO BEYOND 06N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 210 NM S OF AXIS E OF 100W AND 180 NM
N OF AXIS FROM 100W TO 108W.  

...DISCUSSION... 
UPPER LEVEL STATIONARY ANTICYCLONE CENTERED AT AT 28N126W HAS 
RIDGE EXTEND NE-SW FROM 32N125W TO 14N140W.  SUBSIDING AIR MASS
ALOFT KEEPS REGION N OF 10N W OF 116W VERY DRY AND STABLE. 
SECOND ANTICYCLONE...THIS ONE AT 21N116W ADVECTS CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS FROM REMNANTS OF COSME N-NE OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
AND ALSO CONTRIBUTES TO BRING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO E PAC 
ENHANCING CONVECTION IN VICINITY OF WEAK SURFACE LOW PRES
CENTER AT 09N105W.   

HEALTHY UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDING IN SW PERIPHERY OF CYCLONE
OVER GULF OF MEXICO LIKELY TO ENERGIZE SURFACE LOW PRES WITH
ENHANCED CONVECTION AND POSSIBLY STRENGTHEN WITH SOME TROPICAL
ORGANIZATION.  MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTION STRENGTHEN LOW PRES AND
BRING IT NW IN A TRACK THAT KEEPS IT OVER FAVORABLE WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOW SHEAR ALOFT. 

...ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS... 
SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTER 1022 MB AT 34N128W WITH RIDGE SE TO BAJA 
CALIFORNIA KEEPS COSME ON ITS DOOMED PATH OVER COLD WATERS AND
DRY ENVIRONMENT. 

SUBSIDING CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL CONTINUE SPREADING NE
THROUGH FRI BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME BELOW 8 FT SAT.  NEXT SET
OF SIMILAR SWELLS EXPECTED BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 
 
$$ 
WALLY BARNES