000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272151
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
2205 UTC THU JUN 27 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
REMNANT LOW PRES 1004 MB...PREVIOUSLY COSME...AT 20.9N 122.6W
1004 MB AT 2100 UTC JUN 27 MOVING W-NW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 KT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 30 WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.  LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOW COSME LOST MOST OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION BUT STILL 
SHOWS A GOOD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.  COSME INTRUDING INTO REGION
OF VERY DRY AIR MASS...MODERATE WIND SHEAR AND COOL SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURE.  THIS VERY ADVERSE ENVIRONMENT TOOK ITS TOLL ON 
COSME AND NOW HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A REMNANT LOW PRES.  LAST
ADVISORY ON COSME WAS ISSUED BY NHC AT 2100 UTC.  SEE LATEST
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTNT23 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 11N100W TO 1012 MB
LOW PRES AT 10N103W TO 11N107W AND RESUMES FROM 12N127W TO 
07N138W THEN ITCZ TO BEYOND 07N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS E OF 100W AND 210 NM
N OF AXIS FROM 100W TO 108W.  

AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60
NM OF LINE FROM 14N116W TO 10N120W.  

...DISCUSSION... 
UPPER LEVEL STATIONARY ANTICYCLONE CENTERED AT AT 26N128W HAS 
RIDGE EXTEND NE-SW FROM 32N126W TO 14N140W.  SUBSIDING AIR MASS
ALOFT KEEPS REGION N OF 10N W OF 117W VERY DRY AND STABLE. 
SECOND ANTICYCLONE...THIS ONE AT 22N116W ADVECTS CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS FROM REMNANTS OF COSME N-NE OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA AND ALSO CONTRIBUTES TO BRING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO
E PAC ENHANCING CONVECTION IN VICINITY OF WEAK SURFACE LOW PRES
CENTER AT 10N103W.   

HEALTHY UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDING IN SW PERIPHERY OF CYCLONE
OVER GULF OF MEXICO LIKELY TO ENERGIZE SURFACE LOW PRES WITH
ENHANCED CONVECTION AND POSSIBLY SOME TROPICAL ORGANIZATION. 
MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTION STRENGTHEN LOW PRES AND BRING IT NW IN A
TRACK THAT KEEPS IT OVER FAVORABLE WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. 

...ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS... 
SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTER 1021 MB AT 34N128W WITH RIDGE SE TO BAJA
CALIFORNIA KEEPS COSME ON ITS DOOMED PATH OVER COLD WATERS AND
DRY ENVIRONMENT. 

SUBSIDING CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL CONTINUE SPREADING NE
THROUGH FRI BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME BELOW 8 FT SAT.  NEXT
SET OF SIMILAR SWELLS EXPECTED BY MIDDLE OF  NEXT WEEK. 
 
$$ 
WALLY BARNES