000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270314
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
0405 UTC THU JUN 27 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 
TROPICAL STORM COSME AT 19.4N 117.0W AT 0300 UTC WITH CENTRAL 
PRES OF 998 MB MOVING W-NW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT.  MAXIMUM 
00000SUSTAINED WIND 45 GUSTS TO 55 KT.  COSME WEAKENING QUICKLY 
AS SEA SURFACE WATERS APPROACH 23 DEG...CUTS OFF ITS SOURCE OF 
ENERGY AND DECREASES ITS CONVECTION SIGNIFICANTLY.  SCATTERED 
STRONG TSTMS AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS REMAIN WITHIN 180 NM SW 
QUADRANT AND 45 NM NE SEMICIRCLE. SEAS TO UP TO 22 FT EXTEND AS 
FAR OUT AS 420 NM IN SE QUADRANT AND 360 NM NE AND SW QUADRANTS. 
 HIGH SURF BREAKERS EXPECTED TO AFFECT MEXICO COASTAL SECTIONS 
DURING NEXT 24 HRS.  SEE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 09N103W TO 11N106W 
THEN RESUMES FROM 12N122W TO 08N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 300 NM N AND 90 NM S OF AXIS FROM 99W TO
103W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM S OF AXIS FROM
131W TO 133W.

...DISCUSSION... 
MOIST ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM TROPICAL STORM COSME INTERRUPTS
THE OTHERWISE SMOOTH DRY FLOW FROM BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED NEAR 22N128W.  SO COSME IS BATTLING ADVERSE DRY AIR MASS
ALOFT AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...BOTH ENHANCING ITS
QUICK WEAKENING CYCLE WHICH STARTED LESS THAN 18 HRS AGO AND HAS
EFFECTIVELY DROPPED FROM HURRICANE TO TROPICAL STORM AND EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ITS DOWNHILL SPIRAL TO A MINIMUM TROPICAL STORM THU
AND A POST-TROPICAL LOW PRES CENTER FRI.  

...ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
VERY WEAK COLD FRONT FROM 32N130W TO 26N140W BRINGS 8-9 FT NW
SWELLS INTO NW CORNER OF BASIN BUT EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE EARLY THU.

SW SWELLS FROM COSME ENCROACH INTO GULF OF CALIFORNIA S OF 25N
BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE LATE THU.

CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE N ACROSS
BASIN AND BUILDING OVER THOSE GENERATED BY COSME TO REACH COAST
OF MEXICO THROUGH FRI.
 
$$ 
WALLY BARNES