000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262206
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
2205 UTC WED JUN 26 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM COSME AT 19.3N 116.5W AT 2100 UTC WITH CENTRAL 
PRES OF 993 MB MOVING W-NW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND 50 GUSTS TO 60 KT.  COSME WEAKENING QUICKLY AS 
COOLER SURFACE WATERS CURTAILS ITS ENERGIES AND CONVECTION 
DECREASES CONVECTION.  SCATTERED STRONG TSTMS AND NUMEROUS
SHOWERS REMAIN WITHIN 150 NM SW AND 45 NM NE SEMICIRCLES.  SEAS
TO UP TO 26 FT EXTEND AS FAR OUT AS 420 NM IN SE QUADRANT AND 360
NM NE AND SW QUADRANTS.  HIGH SURF BREAKERS EXPECTED TO AFFECT 
MEXICO COASTAL SECTIONS DURING NEXT 24 HRS. SEE THE LATEST
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTNT23 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 09N96W TO 13N103W THEN
RESUMES FROM 12N125W TO 08N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM S AND 120 NM N OF AXIS FROM 96W TO 103W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS FROM 131W TO 
134W.

...DISCUSSION... 
MOIST ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM TROPICAL STORM COSME INTERRUPTS
THE OTHERWISE SMOOTH DRY FLOW FROM BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED NEAR 22N128W.  SO COSME IS BATTLING ADVERSE DRY AIR MASS
ALOFT AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...BOTH ENHANCING ITS
QUICK WEAKENING CYCLE WHICH STARTED LESS THAN 18 HRS AGO AND HAS
EFFECTIVELY DROPPED FROM HURRICANE TO TROPICAL STORM AND EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ITS DOWNHILL SPIRAL TO A MINIMUM TROPICAL STORM THU
AND A POST-TROPICAL LOW PRES CENTER FRI.  

...ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
VERY WEAK COLD FRONT FROM 32N130W TO 26N140W BRINGS 8-9 FT NW
SWELLS INTO NW CORNER OF BASIN BUT EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE EARLY THU.

SW SWELLS FROM COSME ENCROACH INTO GULF OF CALIFORNIA S OF 25N
BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE LATE THU.

CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE N ACROSS
BASIN AND BUILDING OVER THOSE GENERATED BY COSME AND REACHING 
THE COAST OF MEXICO THEOUGH FRI.
 
$$ 
WALLY BARNES