000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260257
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
0405 UTC WED JUN 26 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE COSME CENTERED NEAR 17.9N 113.3W AT 0300 UTC MOVING 
WNW OR 290 DEG AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 
981 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 
KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM IN THE S SEMICIRCLE WITH NUMEROUS 
MODERATE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER...EXCEPT 90 NM IN 
THE NE QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210 NM 
E OF A LINE FROM 15N113W TO 09N118W AND ALSO WITHIN 210 NM S OF 
A LINE FROM 18N107W TO 13N102W. COSME IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN 
STRENGTH THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT 
MOVES OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BACK TO A TROPICAL 
STORM BY WED NIGHT...AND FINALLY TO A REMNANT LOW BY FRI EVENING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS IS ALONG 09N79W TO 08N85W TO 10N98W... 
THEN RESUMES FROM 11N118W TO 08N140W. NO ITCZ AXIS IS PRESENT E 
OF 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 10N 
BETWEEN 94W AND 98W.

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO WITHIN 180 NM OF THE COAST 
OF MEXICO BETWEEN 91W AND 96W.

...DISCUSSION... 

ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N127W THROUGH 
26N132W TO 24N140W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS 
TO THE NW OF THE TROUGH NEAR 29N133W WITH UPPER RIDGING 
EXTENDING WESTWARD ALONG 29N. EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH LEVEL 
MOISTURE N OF 26N W OF 130W...MAINLY MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR IS PRESENT AT THE MIDDLE AND 
UPPER LEVELS N OF 14N AND W OF A LINE FROM 14N124W TO 26N110W. 
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
OVER THE CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 20N105W TO THE FAR 
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THEN WNW TO NEAR 24N120W. 
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT W AND SW OF THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
IS ENHANCING OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE COSME.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT HAS BREACHED 
THE NW CORNER OF THE WATERS DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS EXTENDING 
FROM 32N133W TO BEYOND 29N140W AS OF 0000 UTC. ASSOCIATED NW 
SWELL AT 8 FT WILL REACH TO W OF A LINE FROM 30N137W TO 29N140W 
BY WED MORNING...THEN TO N OF 29N W OF 135W BY WED 
EVENING...DECAYING TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY THU MORNING.

BROAD RIDGING COVERS THE WATERS BETWEEN THE ABOVE MENTIONED 
FRONT TO JUST NW OF THE OUTER CIRCULATION OF COSME. LONG PERIOD 
SOUTHERLY SWELLS MIXING WITH SHORTER PERIOD SEAS GENERATED BY 
COSME OF 8 FT OR GREATER COVERS THE AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 
22N120W TO 13N120W TO 07N134W TO 05N116W TO 08N105W TO 16N99W TO 
25N112W. THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE COAST OF 
MEXICO BETWEEN ROUGHLY 100W AND 110W WITH DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP 
CURRENTS LIKELY AT THE COAST.

SOUTHERLY SWELLS OF 8-10 FT ARE SEEPING INTO THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA S OF 25N. THESE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DECAY TO LESS 
THAN 8 FT BY THU EVENING AS COSME AND ANY ASSOCIATED SWELLS MOVE 
AWAY FROM THE REGION.

$$
LEWITSKY