000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252128
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
2205 UTC TUE JUN 25 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE COSME CENTERED NEAR 17.9N 112.4W AT 25/2100 UTC OR 380 
MILES SSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MOVING WNW AT 15 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST 
/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE 
DETAILS. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM 
IN THE N SEMICIRCLE...300 NM IN THE SE QUADRANT...AND 420 NM IN 
THE SW QUADRANT OF COSME. COSME IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN 
SLIGHTLY TO 75 KT LATE TONIGHT...THEN WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS 
IT MOVES OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BACK TO A TROPICAL 
STORM BY LATE WED NIGHT...AND FINALLY TO A REMNANT LOW BY FRI 
AFTERNOON.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS IS ALONG 09N84W TO 08N89W TO 09N98W... 
THEN RESUMES FROM 12N119W TO 08N140W. NO ITCZ AXIS IS PRESENT E 
OF 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10N86W TO 09N91W...AND ALSO FROM 07.5N TO 
10N BETWEEN 122W AND 135W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 180-240 NM S OF A LINE FROM 10N93W TO 10N105W...AND ALSO 
WITHIN 300 NM S OF A LINE FROM 11N93W TO 18N105W.

...DISCUSSION... 

ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N127W TO 25N140W. 
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING NNW OF THE TROUGH. EXCEPT FOR 
SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE N OF 26N W OF 130W...MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR IS PRESENT AT THE MIDDLE AND 
UPPER LEVELS N OF 13N AND W OF A LINE FROM 13N120W TO CENTRAL 
BAJA CALIFORNIA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 20N105W TO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA...THEN WNW TO NEAR 24N122W. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT W OF 
THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ENHANCING OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED 
WITH HURRICANE COSME.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A WEAK 
1017 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N135W TO THE E-SE NEAR 24N117W NW 
OF THE OUTER CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE COSME. LONG PERIOD 
SOUTHERLY SWELLS MIXING WITH SHORTER PERIOD SEAS GENERATED BY 
COSME OF 8 FT OR GREATER COVERS THE AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 
23N110W TO 10N130W TO 00N110W TO 00N104W TO 16N97W TO 23N110W. 
SOUTHERLY SWELLS WILL MANAGE TO REACH INTO THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA UP TO 24N/25N DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. OTHERWISE... 
WINDS ARE 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS ARE LESS THAN 8 FT ACROSS THE 
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.

A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE NW CORNER OF THE WATERS AND WILL 
BREACH SE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. ASSOCIATED NW SWELL AT 8 
FT WILL REACH TO W OF A LINE FROM 30N136W TO 28N140W BY WED 
MORNING...THEN TO W OF A LINE FROM 30N134W TO 27N140W BY WED 
AFTERNOON WHILE BUILDING TO 9 FT. BY THU AFTERNOON...THE AREA OF 
8 FT OR GREATER NW SWELL WILL MERGE TO THE E-SE WITH THE SWELL 
AREA ASSOCIATED WITH COSME.

$$ 
LEWITSKY