000 AXPZ20 KNHC 251541 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC TUE JUN 25 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE COSME AT 17.7N 110.7W 987 MB AT 1500 UTC JUN 25 MOVING NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 11N-22N BETWEEN 104W-114W. COSME IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM ON WED EVENING AS IT CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD OVER COOLER SURFACE WATERS. SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH 9N85W TO 9N90W TO 12N97W THEN RESUMES FROM 12N115W TO 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 100 NM S OF AXIS FROM 119W-134W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N128W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 26N131W TO 22N140W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING NW OF THE TROUGH. EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE N OF 28N W O 130W...MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 15N W OF 115W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 17N104W INTO NORTHERN MEXICO SEPARATES TWO CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS ONE NEAR 17N121W AND A SECOND NEAR OVER THE YUCATAN PENISULA. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT W OF THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ENHANCING UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM COSME. SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE IS NW OF TROPICAL STORM COSME. OUTSIDE OF TROPICAL STORM COSME WINDS AND LESS THAN 20 KT AND SEAS ARE LESS THAN 8 FT...HOWEVER NLY SWELL ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 8 FT N OF 28N W OF 136W WED. $$ DGS