000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242152
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
2205 UTC MON JUN 24 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM COSME AT 15.0N 107.1W 995 MB AT 2100 UTC JUN 24 
MOVING NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 
50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION FROM NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 11N TO 17N 
BETWEEN 104W AND 108W. COSME IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE 
TUE THEN WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM ON THU AS IT CONTINUES NW 
OVER COOLER WATERS. SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
           
MONSOON TROUGH 09N84W TO 12N99W THEN RESUMES FROM 13N112W TO 
09N130W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N130W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED  
MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 
135W. 

...DISCUSSION... 

A LOW PRES AREA PREVIOUSLY NEAR 13N114W HAS LOST DEFINITION AND 
HAS BEEN BECOME PART OF THE GENERAL TURNING ALONG THE MONSOON 
TROUGH W OF COSME. 

RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE WIDE SWATHS OF 20 TO 30 KT SW 
WINDS CONVERGING INTO COSME...ACCOUNTING FOR THE ASYMMETRIC 
PATTERN OF CONVECTION AROUND THE STORM AS WELL AS A LARGE AREA 
OF SEAS IN EXCESS OF 12 FT WITHIN 300 NM SW OF THE CENTER OF 
COSME. 

FARTHER EAST...A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION PERSISTS IN THE BAY OF 
PANAMA. THIS HAS BEEN AN ACTIVE AREA FOR CONVECTION OVER THE 
PAST SEVERAL DAYS...ENHANCED IN PART BY AN UPPER CYCLONE 
CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE 
SW CARIBBEAN.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 26N140W TO 26N120W TO SOUTHERN BAJA 
PENINSULA. THIS IS MAINTAINING GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS N OF 
20N...AND 10 TO 15 KT TRADES S OF 20N W OF 120W. SEAS ARE 
RUNNING 4 TO 5 FT OVERALL N OF 10N W OF 120W. MEANWHILE CROSS 
EQUATORIAL SW SWELL...RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS TO 10 
FT...CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE NE TO PASS 10N BETWEEN 100W-130W 
MIXING WITH THE SWELLS GENERATED BY TROPICAL CYCLONE COSME 
BEGINNING TODAY. THE SWELL COMPONENT REACHING THE COAST OF 
MEXICO BETWEEN ACAPULCO AND CABO CORRIENTES...AND WILL BE 
REINFORCED BY THE CYCLONE WITH THE COMBINED S SWELL MOVING INTO 
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON TUE NIGHT...AND PROPAGATING N 
ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON WED REACHING 
ALONG 30N ON WED NIGHT. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
 
$$ 
CHRISTENSEN