000 AXPZ20 KNHC 241510 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON JUN 24 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM COSME AT 14.1N 105.8W 998 MB AT 1500 UTC JUN 24 MOVING NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 8N-20N BETWEEN 103W AND 110W. COSME IS FORECAST TO BRIEFLY BECOME A HURRICANE TUE THEN WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM ON THU AS IT CONTINUES NW OVER COOLER WATERS. SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH 10N84W TO 12N99W THEN RESUMES NEAR 1010 MB LOW PRES 13N115W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 5N-8N E OF 80W AND WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS FROM 93W-99W AND WITHIN 110 NM S OF AXIS FROM 125W-133W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N122W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 26N130W TO 24N140W. EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE N OF 28N W O 125W...MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 15N W OF 110W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM 15N120W TO 22N123W SEPARATES TWO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ONE NEAR 16N129W AND A SECOND NEAR 19N19W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 14N97W WITH RIDGE N ACROSS MEXICO. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT W OF THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ENHANCING UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM COSME. SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE IS N OF 20N W OF 117W. OUTSIDE OF TROPICAL STORM COSME WINDS AND LESS THAN 20 KT AND SEAS ARE LESS THAN 8 FT...HOWEVER NLY SWELL ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 8 FT N OF 28N W OF 136W WED. $$ DGS